Motorcycle Live at the NEC saw 103,702 visitors pass through the doors for the 2018 show. This is 3,370 less than the previous year and as in previous years we have made comparisons to show goers and the following years new market performance. So all things being equal, it would be fair to think 2019 will be seeing a slight reduction. The thing is that we are on the back of a “non-standard” market with the change to Euro 4 which carried over in a smaller way into 2017. At the start of the year there was talk from these walls of an 110,000 market, which in fairness was behind some of the more optimistic industry commentators and even that looks like it could be an over-estimate. We have Brexit to contend with this year which has every chance of throwing any spanners left in the box, into the works. Anyone for a flat year of 105k? As Brexit is causing some uncertainty in businesses in general, ours is no different and until some clarity in exchange rate, trade barriers etc are seen, the approach of manufacturers will probably be on the conservative side when investing money into marketing for what could be most of the year, if not longer.
New Market
We are this month looking at the new registration numbers issued by the MCIA for November. It’s always going to be a bit of a lottery as far as the market performance, with various variable factors. Schemes in the previous month tend to have an impact on the following months, after all (usually) you can only sell one bike to a customer. Another trap we can fall into is reading too much into the percentage change, when the actual unit numbers are quite small. That said, November saw a small decrease in total registrations from the same period 2017 of 2.2%. This is in unit terms 137 less, but always trying to look on the bright side, the year to date number is still a positive at 1.5% and has now broken into six-figures and is higher than last year by 1,474. Big winner in the % stakes this month is Custom, but as mentioned above 353 is only an increase of just over a hundred, but still a win. Naked and Scooter being the biggest sectors are both in the positive but the former at 30.8% increase for the month behind the Y-T-D 33.9% market share and the latter increasing the Y-T-D 19.7% to 22.9%. Remember though that as the end of the year approaches, some will be chasing targets to earn bonus, but that happens every year so looking at the longer term paints a better picture of the industry.
November 2018 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style
Mopeds
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Nov-18
Nov-17
Change
Nov-18
Nov-17
2018
2017
% Change
2018
2017
Scooter
335
417
-19.7%
77.7%
81.3%
4,093
5,566
-26.5%
81.2%
86.8%
Other
96
96
0.0%
22.3%
18.7%
947
849
11.5%
18.8%
13.2%
Totals
431
513
-16.0%
100.0%
100.0%
5,040
6,415
-21.4%
100.0%
100.0%
Motorcycles
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Nov-18
Nov-17
Change
Nov-18
Nov-17
2018
2017
% Change
2018
2017
Adventure Sport
844
1,046
-19.3%
14.9%
18.3%
17,002
17,556
-3.2%
17.9%
19.1%
Custom
353
249
41.8%
6.2%
4.3%
8,003
7,747
3.3%
8.4%
8.4%
Naked
1,748
1,628
7.4%
30.8%
28.4%
32,210
29,275
10.0%
33.9%
31.8%
Scooter
1,674
1,362
22.9%
29.5%
23.8%
18,676
17,632
5.9%
19.7%
19.2%
Sport/Tour
177
159
11.3%
3.1%
2.8%
3,091
2,877
7.4%
3.3%
3.1%
Supersport
339
648
-47.7%
6.0%
11.3%
7,773
9,057
-14.2%
8.2%
9.8%
Touring
102
102
0.0%
1.8%
1.8%
2,396
2,254
6.3%
2.5%
2.4%
Trail/Enduro
425
524
-18.9%
7.5%
9.2%
5,678
5,484
3.5%
6.0%
6.0%
Unspecified
6
7
-14.3%
0.1%
0.1%
186
134
38.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Totals
5,668
5,725
-1.0%
100.0%
100.0%
95,015
92,016
3.3%
100.0%
100.0%
Tricycles
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Nov-18
Nov-17
Change
Nov-18
Nov-17
2018
2017
% Change
2018
2017
Scooter
33
28
17.9%
0.5%
0.4%
387
487
-20.5%
0.4%
0.5%
Other
19
22
-13.6%
0.3%
0.3%
232
282
-17.7%
0.2%
0.3%
Total Registrations
52
50
4.0%
0.8%
0.8%
619
769
-19.5%
0.6%
0.8%
Summary
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Nov-18
Nov-17
Change
Nov-18
Nov-17
2018
2017
% Change
2018
2017
Total Moped, Motorcycle & Tricycles (exc Scooters)
4,109
4,481
-8.3%
66.8%
71.3%
77,518
75,515
2.7%
77.0%
76.1%
Total Scooters
2,042
1,807
13.0%
33.2%
28.7%
23,156
23,685
-2.2%
23.0%
23.9%
Total Registrations
6,151
6,288
-2.2%
100.0%
100.0%
100,674
99,200
1.5%
100.0%
100.0%
Moving to the engine size chart if we ignore the constant decline in the 50cc market, there has been some small changes in the month, with the larger capacities fairing the best, but as mentioned above remember the schemes. One interesting point that might back this up in the negatives/positives for the month are opposite to the Y-T-D.
November 2018 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Engine Band
Engine Band
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Nov-18
Nov-17
Change
Nov-18
Nov-17
2018
2017
% Change
2018
2017
0-50cc
445
520
-14.4%
7.2%
8.3%
5,251
6,543
-19.7%
5.2%
6.6%
51-125cc
2,330
2,488
-6.4%
37.9%
39.6%
31,990
30,056
6.4%
31.8%
30.3%
126-650cc
1,202
1,216
-1.2%
19.5%
19.3%
18,957
16,305
16.3%
18.8%
16.4%
651-1000cc
1,187
1,162
2.2%
19.3%
18.5%
24,191
25,923
-6.7%
24.0%
26.1%
Over 1000cc
987
902
9.4%
16.0%
14.3%
20,285
20,373
-0.4%
20.1%
20.5%
Total Registrations
6,151
6,288
-2.2%
100.0%
100.0%
100,674
99,200
1.5%
100.0%
100.0%
Only a mild eyebrow raise in the best-selling models as a completely new, especially a quantum leap will always attract early adopters wanting it before everyone else and even perhaps a few demo’s thrown in, but has there ever been a Lexmoto on top of the Sport/Tour group?
November 2018 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style
Mopeds
Highest Registering Model by style
Nov-18
Scooter
Lexmoto ECHO 50
80
Other
Multiple Items
18
Motorcycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Nov-18
Adventure Sport
Honda CRF 1000
80
Custom
Keeway SUPERLIGHT
34
Naked
KTM 125 DUKE
105
Scooter
Honda PCX 125
232
Sport/Tour
Lexmoto LXR 125 SY 125-10
54
Supersport
Ducati PANIGALE V4
34
Touring
BMW R 1200 RT
28
TRAIL/ENDURO
KTM 300 EXC SIX DAYS
25
November 2018 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size
Tricycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Nov-18
SCOOTER
Piaggio MP3 500 LT SPORT ABS
11
OTHER
Bajaj RE COMPACT 4S
5
Engine Band
Highest Registering Model by Engine Band
Nov-18
0-50cc
Lexmoto ECHO 50
80
51-125cc
Honda PCX 125
232
126-650cc
Piaggio VESPA GTS 300 SUPER ABS
88
651-1000cc
Triumph BONNEVILLE STREET TWIN
103
Over 1000cc
BMW R 1250 GS
79
November 2018 - New Registrations by Brand
Major Brands
Nov-18
Honda
1,178
Yamaha
601
Triumph
562
KTM
413
Piaggio
405
Lexmoto
391
BMW
384
Kawasaki
268
Suzuki
218
Harley-Davidson
196
Used Market
At the low point of the year for sales in general, retail activity is as expected, but the worm on the turn is trade activity. The back end of November into December, thoughts of next season are the only thing warming the cockles of the hearts in the trade. As we have seen over what has now crept upon us to become a decade, the supply of used bikes has become increasingly more difficult to source with exporting to Euro Zone that started as a welcome relief at a time of shrinking sales and reducing profits the main cause. But like all good things, you can sometimes have too much of one and with the continued exodus of quality stock over an extended period and only the odd fluctuation in favour of Sterling slowing it. This of course makes fewer available morsels for the domestic trade buyer to pick over and as can be expected over the years, prices have increased. To get a jump before the new season starts as observed in recent years, the trade buyers where cash-flow allows start to buy the following years stock earlier than would be seen at the beginning of the century. In summer, opinion of prices are “into book” and the opposite “behind book” in winter, it’s a safety blanket thing as dealers hope they can retail out of bikes in season and hope that out of season they can buy cheaper and still have a route out if necessary. Just like a clock that’s stopped, the time is right twice a day, the opinion of dealers and what’s reported in this product coincide twice a year and we are at this point where “behind” opinion is moving to “into”. With that in mind as opinion catches reported, there has been no sweeping changes in this month’s product apart from the places where research has suggested some minor attention is required.
End Notes
The EU, despite the opinions of some of the UK, still have a say in some of the things that happen in these fair isles. The latest one is what some would consider a needless tweak to the bike test that the UK campaigned against. From the end of last month the rules regarding Category A motorcycle test needed to get a full licence were changed, so riders need to take the test on heavier, more powerful machines. The old rule was it must be on a bike making more than 40kW but from 31 December 2018 that changed to 50kW. Even if the power still qualifies in the new rules, there is also a second change to the rules introducing a minimum kerb weight of 180kg. The problem is this now excludes several machines that are currently popular first ‘big’ bikes and in some circumstances exceeds the power of what some will go on to ride full-time. The strange thing (in a non-political way) is now the country is on its way out of the EU, why have the rules that have been delayed since the introduction of the European 3rd Directive on driving licences in 2012 now being enforced? Although the list of now excluded models is quite sizable, the effect on prices for those is not expected to be affected in the long term, although if there is mass dumping it could (but not expected) lower prices until they wash out of the system.
Again social media has jumped at the oft mentioned crime spike using two-wheels, but not in the usual way, not only the riding community has raised its voice but even the police have joined in. The Shadow Home Secretary was slammed from many sides for tweeting that: ‘Knocking people off bikes is potentially very dangerous. It shouldn't be legal for anyone. Police are not above the law’. A small portion from a larger answer circulated from a serving police officer draws attention to Section 3 of the Criminal Law act 1967 which states: ‘A person may use such force as is reasonable in the circumstances in the prevention of crime, or in effecting or assisting in the lawful arrest of offenders or suspected offenders or of persons unlawfully at large’, effectively putting to bed her comment that the police are not above the law. And continues that knocking people off of bikes is potentially very dangerous. That risk is balanced off of the strength and evidence of what these thugs have done. These people, usually gang members steal these mopeds and motor bikes. They then go on to perform many awful and serious crimes on these stolen bikes. The vehicles will not be insured, the riders will not have the correct licence to ride them and also have NO regard for the safety of those whom they terrorise on a daily basis. If stopping those leads to potential danger, then I believe this is a worthwhile pursuit. Stop for Police when requested to do so and you won’t be nudged off by the Police. It’s really that simple. Remember, this is tainting our industry, especially when they are described as “biker”.
Let’s hope the external distractions are sorted and the industry has a good year, we can only hope. But in the meantime we wish you all have a good one and all the best wishes for a Happy New Year.
