As the final full year new sales figures are out, the post-mortem for 2017 in the trade and press starts. There will be a lot of negative comment, some positive and some perceived reasons/excuses. But as the days start to draw out the preparations for the soon to be on us season, are well underway. Dealers are looking for used stock and there are numerous new model releases on the close horizon.
New Market
Let’s start with the last month of the year and what was always going to be a month of large reductions from the madness of pre-registering in December 2016. Although derogation still played some part in the final numbers leaving the month on 6,266, 43% down on the previous year (10,990). But comparisons to previous years does give a better picture with just over a thousand more on the 2015 5,224. 2014 and 2013 for the same month saw 4,554 and 4,116. The big test of the real market will be this year, now the dust has settled.
December 2017 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style\
Mopeds
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Dec-17
Dec-16
Change
Dec-17
Dec-16
2017
2016
% Change
2017
2016
Scooter
1,046
690
51.6%
80.6%
84.7%
6,612
7,909
-16.4%
85.7%
90.6%
Other
251
125
100.8%
19.4%
15.3%
1,100
817
34.6%
14.3%
9.4%
Totals
1,297
815
59.1%
100.0%
100.0%
7,712
8,726
-11.6%
100.0%
100.0%
Motorcycles
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Dec-17
Dec-16
Change
Dec-17
Dec-16
2017
2016
% Change
2017
2016
Adventure Sport
830
1,236
-32.8%
16.8%
12.2%
18,386
18,500
-0.6%
19.0%
15.5%
Custom
245
1,078
-77.3%
5.0%
10.7%
8,034
10,590
-24.1%
8.3%
8.9%
Naked
1,968
3,053
-35.5%
39.9%
30.2%
31,243
35,647
-12.4%
32.2%
30.0%
Scooter
905
2,592
-65.1%
18.4%
25.6%
18,537
27,468
-32.5%
19.1%
23.1%
Sport/Tour
85
169
-49.7%
1.7%
1.7%
2,962
3,946
-24.9%
3.1%
3.3%
Supersport
375
1,245
-69.9%
7.6%
12.3%
9,432
13,485
-30.1%
9.7%
11.3%
Touring
62
150
-58.7%
1.3%
1.5%
2,273
2,431
-6.5%
2.3%
2.0%
Trail/Enduro
451
588
-23.3%
9.2%
5.8%
5,935
6,732
-11.8%
6.1%
5.7%
Unspecified
6
7
-14.3%
0.1%
0.1%
141
177
-20.3%
0.1%
0.1%
Totals
4,927
10,118
-51.3%
100.0%
100.0%
96,943
118,976
-18.5%
100.0%
100.0%
Tricycles
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Dec-17
Dec-16
Change
Dec-17
Dec-16
2017
2016
% Change
2017
2016
Scooter
25
40
-37.5%
0.4%
0.4%
512
690
-25.8%
0.5%
0.5%
Other
17
17
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
300
252
19.0%
0.3%
0.2%
Total Registrations
42
57
-26.3%
0.7%
0.5%
812
942
-13.8%
0.8%
0.7%
December 2017 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Engine Band
Summary
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Dec-17
Dec-16
Change
Dec-17
Dec-16
2017
2016
% Change
2017
2016
Total Moped, Motorcycle & Tricycles (exc Scooters)
4,290
7,668
-44.1%
68.5%
69.8%
79,806
92,577
-13.8%
75.7%
72.0%
Total Scooters
1,976
3,322
-40.5%
31.5%
30.2%
25,661
36,067
-28.9%
24.3%
28.0%
Total Registrations
6,266
10,990
-43.0%
100.0%
100.0%
105,467
128,644
-18.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Engine Band
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Dec-17
Dec-16
Change
Dec-17
Dec-16
2017
2016
% Change
2017
2016
0-50cc
1,328
909
46.1%
21.2%
8.3%
7,871
8,987
-12.4%
7.5%
7.0%
51-125cc
1,577
5,971
-73.6%
25.2%
54.3%
31,633
50,680
-37.6%
30.0%
39.4%
126-650cc
1,409
1,703
-17.3%
22.5%
15.5%
17,714
19,872
-10.9%
16.8%
15.4%
651-1000cc
965
1,215
-20.6%
15.4%
11.1%
26,888
26,684
0.8%
25.5%
20.7%
Over 1000cc
987
1,192
-17.2%
15.8%
10.8%
21,361
22,421
-4.7%
20.3%
17.4%
Total Registrations
6,266
10,990
-43.0%
100.0%
100.0%
105,467
128,644
-18.0%
100.0%
100.0%
The smaller engine models were always going to be the most affected with many of the less expensive “Chinese” imported machines involved in beating the deadline and they were affected to the tune of a minus 73.6%. Trying to put some positive light on the figures is the moped part of the market at the end of its Euro 4 compliance point saw the clearing of stock increase the engine band by 59.1% (to 1,297).
December 2017 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style
Mopeds
Highest Registering Model by style
Dec-17
Scooter
Honda NSC 50 E
312
Other
Lexmoto HUNTER 50 TD 50 Q
121
Motorcycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Dec-17
Adventure Sport
Honda NC 750 X
97
Custom
Harley-Davidson SPORTSTER N 883
35
Naked
KTM 390 DUKE
435
Scooter
Honda PCX 125
121
Sport/Tour
Kawasaki Z1000 SX
31
Supersport
Honda CBR 650 F
36
Touring
BMW R 1200 RT
24
TRAIL/ENDURO
KTM 300 EXC SIX DAYS
40
December 2017 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size
Tricycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Dec-17
SCOOTER
Piaggio MP3 300 YOURBAN LT
11
OTHER
Piaggio APE CLASSIC 400
6
Engine Band
Highest Registering Model by Engine Band
Dec-17
0-50cc
Honda NSC 50 E
312
51-125cc
Honda PCX 125
121
126-650cc
KTM 390 DUKE
435
651-1000cc
Honda NC 750 X
97
Over 1000cc
KTM 1290 SUPERDUKE GT
230
December 2017 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Brand
Major Brands
Dec-17
Honda
1,209
KTM
941
Yamaha
453
Triumph
366
Lexmoto
343
Peugeot
324
BMW
323
Kawasaki
266
Suzuki
244
Ducati
236
Again when looking at the second part of the MCIA new registration charts, other factors outside the norm are again playing a strange tune. Lots of Honda mopeds should signal the end of this type of conversation, until of course Euro 5 rears its ugly head. So 2017 new registrations finished at 105,467 units, down from the previous year’s 128,644, a minus 18%. Previous to that in 2015 the final number was 115,121, so without the Euro regulation changes, it could be suggested that things are not as bad as we think. Again, this year will clarify the state of play in the industry. Finishing this section on a positive, the number of people taking motorcycle tests has also been going up annually for the past four years.
Used Market
Feedback over the last month is suggesting the used market is on the up. Not really rocket science saying that as we move out of the Christmas lull and thoughts turn to the new season. As exchange rates are still not in favour of Sterling with the associated price increase in new list prices, as this takes effect on the new market, the used market could strengthen even more. At the moment there are a lot of deals being done to ease the pressure on new sales, but as always these are short term and aimed at finding some business for the last of the 67 plate, pre March change. Clean used examples are still sought after and getting thinner on the ground, but as some of the Euro 3 pre-reg machines start to work their way back into the market, the spike in sales should start to ease the problems slightly for late plate. The major concern in the used market has been finding clean examples of older bikes. Five year old plus has been a problem for some time, as at that time (and back) new figures were under pressure and the exporting over the last ten years took its toll. Later plate examples are reasonably similar in opinion from different sources and fairly consistent, but move back to older stock and competition in the trade for “price range” bikes has been getting hot. This as time moves on is increasingly obvious and clean examples approaching ten years and older are now being judged more on condition and mileage rather than the plate. Feedback is pointing to increased trade buying activity and preparations for the upcoming high season are all pointing to increasing prices. This has been reflected in this month’s data, where there has been a general uplift where necessary.
Auction
After a finish to 2017 over in Rotherham at the MAG sale pointing to strong prices, the first sale of 2018 did not point in any other direction. A dealer group now owned by a car group with stock time limit policies similar to the car industry “norm” is releasing quality stock into the auction scene that would have gone directly to trade twelve months ago. The buzz around these is confirming there is a strong thirst for quality. Even the less ready for retail examples found new homes relatively easily, the result was that from the 79 entries, 65 fell under the hammer (82%). The overall sale returned 103% of CAP adjusted figures and with the dealer research over the last month is pointing to the obvious movement in the market as stated in the previous section. BCA had a slow start to the year after the new sale timings could have not possibly been noticed by some. Now two every month on the second and third Thursday, the first just after the holiday period as people got back into the swing of things, lacked both entries and people. This will change as buyers settle back into normality and the upcoming sales have already got both manufacturer and finance company entries already on site.
End Notes
Much has been said in the press, social media and even this editorial about the crime wave using two wheels, particularly mopeds. It could have a backlash, or taint our industry and we should all keep up the pressure from all angles to reduce or wipe-out this as much as possible. We know these “people” are possibly not in possession of a full toolbox in some cases, but you have to crack some sort of a smile on recent events. London moped riding thieves stole a police BMW R1200RT and one in fully stickered up yellow and blue. A video tweeted by an account which regularly shares videos of bike thefts in progress was apparently filmed and originally shared by the culprits.
INDIAN motorcycle manufacturer Royal Enfield recently announced a 16% sales growth for December compared to the same period in 2016. This was an increase to 66,968 units from 2015’s 57,398 (worldwide). The majority were for the domestic market but exports grew 47%, 1,601 units shipped, an increase of 519 from the 1,082 in December 2016. With only a quarter of their financial year left Royal Enfield has sold 593,450 motorcycles, 21% increase on the same period the previous year. Within these numbers exports increased 32% (from 10,574 to 13,988) in the same period last year. Remember of course the announcement last year of the launch of a new 'UK Technical Centre' at Bruntingthorpe for global product development.
From a former British brand to one that is still truly the UK flag-carrier. Triumph recently posted its full-year results to 30 June 2017. Annual revenue rose by 22.3% (to £498.5m), earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation were up 47.8% (to £41.1m) and pre-tax profit increased 48.8% (to £24.7m). The worldwide retail sales volume grew 12.7% (to 63,404) bikes. 86.1% of the sold bikes went overseas, a slight 0.8% rise to the previous 12 months. Triumphs R&D spend increased by 8.6% to £29.2m and as seen in the press they have launched several new models. An exciting development announced at the back end of last season they have also become official engine supplier to the exciting and hard fought Moto2 championship in the 2019 season onwards. The sound of 30-odd axe murdering teenagers trying to make a name for themselves on the world stage to the soundtrack of the Street Triples 765cc engine will be music to the ears for most of us.
And another segue into the good news finish of this month’s editorial and in a similar vein, racing season starts this month, eak.
