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Brexit is due to take place this month, but whatever does/doesn’t happen it will have a big effect on everyone’s lives in the UK at some point, perhaps it will be a knee jerk reaction that will subside within weeks, but then eventually settle to give a clearer idea of how the industry will move forward. Both sides of the camp have their own opinions and as always the press is taking the extremes of both and not helping as most of what is available is contradictory or misleading. It’s not going to happen overnight, but if we finish up on World Trade Organisation rules currently the EU charges an 8% tariff, on machines under 250cc and over that 6%. There is a chance of some pretty big increases in list prices and until our own trade deals are in place (which can be years away) it would not be a stretch of imagination to see adverse effects on the new market, but possibly a shift in used prices that will be upwards to maintain a similar gap we currently have between the two.
On the subject of Europe, as the total registrations are now available from the European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers, it is worth having a look to compare our market to other bigger ones over The Channel. Total motorcycles registered in the EU in 2018 was 1,004,063, close to 10% up on the 913,723 from the previous year. The UK (100,439 up 3%) is number five in the top five which starts with Italy (219,694 up 7%), France (177,460 up 9%), Spain (159,946 up 17 %) and Germany (156,108 up 11%). In fact there was only one country with a lower increase and that was Poland with a 3% decline, also the only one with a loss. In the moped market the final number of 273,645 was only 69% of the 2017 399,420. The bestselling nation for the smaller types was France which on 72,940 last year declined in line with the average continental market. Belgium in fourth place for Moped numbers was the only one registering significant numbers of the four countries showing an increase (21,391 up 14%). The UK was in ninth, again the decline was the same as the average for the whole.
New Market
Remember this is the first month of the year and is by no means a trend or indication of how the year will pan out, so there will be no emotive descriptive words of such a short period of registrations. But that said, it’s good to see in the latest MCIA new registrations figures available that the total numbers are up 8.7%, an increase from 5,005 to 5,935 units.
There are areas worth a quick mention when looking at the tables though. Adventure Sport and scooter are the stand out ones with not only high percentage increases, but the actual numbers starting from a higher place than lower selling sectors have shown significant changes over the same period last year. Hondas CRF 1000 Africa Twin selling 158 in the month has to be pointed out as a possible model being thrown into the limelight on the back of some pre registering, inducements to dealers or retail offers helping it to the result it achieved in January.
January 2019 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style
Mopeds
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Jan-19
Jan-18
Change
Jan-19
Jan-18
2018
2017
% Change
2018
2017
Scooter
270
347
-22.2%
74.2%
83.4%
270
347
-22.2%
74.2%
83.4%
Other
94
69
36.2%
25.8%
16.6%
94
69
36.2%
25.8%
16.6%
Totals
364
416
-12.5%
100.0%
100.0%
364
416
-12.5%
100.0%
100.0%
Motorcycles |
Registrations |
% |
Market Share (%) |
Year to date |
YTD |
Market Share (%) |
||||
Jan-19 |
Jan-18 |
Change |
Jan-19 |
Jan-18 |
2018 |
2017 |
% Change |
2018 |
2017 |
|
Adventure Sport |
948 |
801 |
18.4% |
17.1% |
16.0% |
948 |
801 |
18.4% |
17.1% |
16.0% |
Custom |
362 |
347 |
4.3% |
6.5% |
6.9% |
362 |
347 |
4.3% |
6.5% |
6.9% |
Naked |
1,453 |
1,493 |
-2.7% |
26.2% |
29.8% |
1,453 |
1,493 |
-2.7% |
26.2% |
29.8% |
Scooter |
1,433 |
1,040 |
37.8% |
25.8% |
20.8% |
1,433 |
1,040 |
37.8% |
25.8% |
20.8% |
Sport/Tour |
109 |
113 |
-3.5% |
2.0% |
2.3% |
109 |
113 |
-3.5% |
2.0% |
2.3% |
Supersport |
333 |
395 |
-15.7% |
6.0% |
7.9% |
333 |
395 |
-15.7% |
6.0% |
7.9% |
Touring |
102 |
130 |
-21.5% |
1.8% |
2.6% |
102 |
130 |
-21.5% |
1.8% |
2.6% |
Trail/Enduro |
805 |
683 |
17.9% |
14.5% |
13.6% |
805 |
683 |
17.9% |
14.5% |
13.6% |
Unspecified |
1 |
3 |
-66.7% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
1 |
3 |
-66.7% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
Totals |
5,546 |
5,005 |
10.8% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
5,546 |
5,005 |
10.8% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
Tricycles |
Registrations |
% |
Market Share (%) |
Year to date |
YTD |
Market Share (%) |
||||
Jan-19 |
Jan-18 |
Change |
Jan-19 |
Jan-18 |
2018 |
2017 |
% Change |
2018 |
2017 |
|
Scooter |
20 |
21 |
-4.8% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
20 |
21 |
-4.8% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Other |
5 |
16 |
-68.8% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
5 |
16 |
-68.8% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
Total Registrations |
25 |
37 |
-32.4% |
0.4% |
0.7% |
25 |
37 |
-32.4% |
0.4% |
0.7% |
Summary |
Registrations |
% |
Market Share (%) |
Year to date |
YTD |
Market Share (%) |
||||
Jan-19 |
Jan-18 |
Change |
Jan-19 |
Jan-18 |
2018 |
2017 |
% Change |
2018 |
2017 |
|
Total Moped, Motorcycle & Tricycles (exc Scooters) |
4,212 |
4,050 |
4.0% |
71.0% |
74.2% |
4,212 |
4,050 |
4.0% |
71.0% |
74.2% |
Total Scooters |
1,723 |
1,408 |
22.4% |
29.0% |
25.8% |
1,723 |
1,408 |
22.4% |
29.0% |
25.8% |
Total Registrations |
5,935 |
5,458 |
8.7% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
5,935 |
5,458 |
8.7% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
January 2019 and Year to Date - Highest Registrations by Engine Band
Engine Band
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Jan-19
Jan-18
Change
Jan-19
Jan-18
2018
2017
% Change
2018
2017
0-50cc
374
423
-11.6%
6.3%
7.8%
374
423
-11.6%
6.3%
7.8%
51-125cc
2,171
1,882
15.4%
36.6%
34.5%
2,171
1,882
15.4%
36.6%
34.5%
126-650cc
1,494
1,279
16.8%
25.2%
23.4%
1,494
1,279
16.8%
25.2%
23.4%
651-1000cc
972
917
6.0%
16.4%
16.8%
972
917
6.0%
16.4%
16.8%
Over 1000cc
924
957
-3.4%
15.6%
17.5%
924
957
-3.4%
15.6%
17.5%
Total Registrations
5,935
5,458
8.7%
100.0%
100.0%
5,935
5,458
8.7%
100.0%
100.0%
The other point worth mentioning is the meteoric rise to not only bestselling Trail/Enduro and top dog in the lower medium engine category in the form of TE300, but also helping Husqvarna make what is probably the only every mention in the top ten manufacturer list in seventh place.
January 2019 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style
Mopeds
Highest Registering Model by style
Jan-19
Scooter
Lexmoto ECHO 50
53
Other
Yamasaki YM 50-10 RE
17
Motorcycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Jan-19
Adventure Sport
Honda CRF 1000
158
Custom
Honda CMX 500 REBEL
37
Naked
Honda CB 650 R
80
Scooter
Honda PCX 125
227
Sport/Tour
Kawasaki Z1000 SX
34
Supersport
Lexmoto LXR 125 SY 125-10
57
Touring
BMW R 1250 RT
37
TRAIL/ENDURO
Husqvarna TE 300
105
January 2019 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size
Tricycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Jan-19
SCOOTER
Multiple Items
5
OTHER
Piaggio APE CLASSIC 400
2
Engine Band
Highest Registering Model by Engine Band
Jan-19
0-50cc
Lexmoto ECHO 50
53
51-125cc
Honda PCX 125
227
126-650cc
Husqvarna TE 300
105
651-1000cc
Honda CRF 1000
158
Over 1000cc
BMW R 1250 GS
115
January 2019 - New Registrations by Brand
Major Brands
Jan-19
Honda
1,496
KTM
589
Yamaha
535
BMW
403
Lexmoto
356
Triumph
293
Husqvarna
256
Kawasaki
231
Harley-Davidson
225
Piaggio
197
Used Market
At the end of February as this is being written, the opinion in the dealers is that in general it has been a good start to the year for used sales. Last year was similar with of course a reference to the usual weather conditions that can affect our industry almost the same and so are sales. There is some talk of finding the right stock as far as condition and mileage is concerned, but that is always there these days after the loss of stock to the Euro Zone. On that subject, there is still little indication as to how the political situation that is supposed to be resolved this month is going to affect our industry. New machines might be the focus of availability for a short time, but we still have used in the country and there is a chance that if new is not available, nearly new used will be more in demand. Long term there is still uncertainty, but as this is a monthly thing we produce, the usual is research and react at this moment and the outcome from this last period is prices are easing up and have been reflected accordingly.
Auctions
There has not been the large entries in the auction system in line with dealers retaining the quality stock and at the time of writing there has not been any large finance house disposals yet. But the ones that have taken place are on average within a couple of percent of the reported numbers in general and apart from confirming dealer sentiment there is little to point to major changes.
End Notes
There are several manufacturers with results released as we are just past the year end and as always it gives an idea of the state of play in the world stage.
As well as a good January in the UK Europe’s largest motorcycle manufacturer, KTM industries have had an eighth-consecutive annual record of rising revenue, profit and sales volume in preliminary full-year results for 2018. Turnover was 1.7% up (to £1.356bn) operating profit up by 21.5% (to £140m), adjusted operating margin of 8.6% and a pre-tax profit of £124.6m (22.4% up). The group increased volume by 9.7% with 261,454 motorcycles consisting of 212,899 KTM and 48,555 Husqvarna.
After several years of good news on the back of new models, the usual up and down cycle of any brand is visiting Yamaha on the down curve. 2018 revenue from bikes was down 2.2% (to £7.168bn), total sales volume slightly by 0.3% (to 5.374 million units) and associated operating profit crashed by 20.8% (to £382m). Developed markets caused most of the decline, with revenue receding by 6.4% (to £1.643bn) and an operating loss of £119m which was a £34m loss in 2017. Europe was the biggest bad guy with volume dropping by 11.6% (to 176,000 bikes) and revenue was 5.2% lower (at £921m). In North America volume fell a little less, by 4.3% (to 67,000) with revenue falling 4.9% (to £351m). Emerging markets fared better, mainly in Asia, where volume increased by 0.4% (to 5.039 million), revenue 0.9% down (to £5.525bn) and operating profit a minus 3% (to £501m).
Politics feel to be coming more a part of conversations when discussing the industry and tariffs on exports to Europe were always going to have an influence for Harley-Davidson in 2018. Annual revenue from motorcycles and related products rose a little, by 1.1% (to £3.769bn), financial services turnover was 2.2% up (£567.6m) so total revenue increased by 1.2% (to £4.337bn). But the big kicker was operating profit taking a large hit to the tune of 19.9% (to £541.3m) and pre-tax profit was 20.5% down (to £520.9m). As a result of year-on-year cut in US corporate taxation by the instigator of the tariffs, President Trump, net profit actually showed a profit, 1.9% up (at £403.2m). The afore mentioned leader of the free world and the tariffs he imposed on exports to Europe had a massive negative effect on the brand in the final quarter. Instead of the price increases passing on to customers, they swallowed it and Harley incurred an operating loss of £45.2m on motorcycles and related products. The three month overall quarterly operating profit subsequently reduced to small £2.8m, a pre-tax loss of £3.1m and net income of £376,000. Worldwide wholesale bike shipments in the year shrank by 5.3% (to 228,665), retail sales fell by 6.1% (to 228,051) and their domestic dealer network loss ground to the tune of 10.2% less (at 132,868) but International sales showed a slight 0.4% increase (to 95,183). The tariff increase not being passed on appeared to make the difference as in Europe, the brands biggest overseas market grew by 3.5% (to 41,179), which was better than the 1.8% increase for the 601cc-plus segment their offerings sit in. Mixed results were seen around the rest of the globe with Asia Pacific region declining 5.4% (to 28,724), including Australia sinking by 21.2% and a more positive Japan up by 15%. Latin America improved by 7.6% (to 10,167) and Canada was 3.9% down (at 9690).
At the Q3 point for Honda’s motorcycle business the place at the top of the pile was cemented by nine month revenue rising by 6.1% (to £11.323bn), operating profit was 16.3% up (to £1.734bn) and operating margin improved from 14% to 15.3%. Global wholesale shipment volume grew by 5.9% to a record 15.68 million Honda-branded motorcycles, scooters and ATVs. In the developed world, European sales were 4.6% up (to 181,000), their domestic market increased by 24.6% (to 157,000) but North America reduced 6.9% (to 216,000). The largest market for the brand, Asian countries, accounting the large majority of sales, increased 5.4% (to 14.187 million), saw India up front with 4.49 million, a 2.5% growth Indonesia up by 11.4% (to 3.69 million), Vietnam increased by 13.1% (to 2.095 million) and the only loss in Thailand that lost ground to the tune of 2.1% (to 1.086 million). In other regions, predominantly Latin American countries, sales improved by 15.1% to 939,000.
Again the story at Suzuki after one blip into a positive set of results has seen mixed news for the first nine months of the financial year. Retail sales volume rose a creditable 11.8% (to 1.303 million) motorcycles, scooters and ATVs, but due to currency changes revenue was just 0.7% up (to £1.271bn) and the worst news was operating profit losses of 91.6% (to £977,000). Asian volume increased by 16.8% (to 1.07 million) and the related revenue was 14.7% up (to £671m). India being the superstar with volume 34.3% up (to 472,000) and revenue rising by 20.1% (to £284m). The developed world was a let-down with European retail sales level (on 33,000) and revenue falling by 17.2% (to £185m). North American volume grew by 3.7% (to 28,000) but revenue was 7.5% down at £147m.
This month the feel-good finish is provided from an article doing the rounds on social media. Jamie Frayne a Blood Biker from Wales nipped into a supermarket for a snack while transporting samples and on returning to his marked bike, he found £5 rolled in a note and tucked between his handlebars. The note read: “Lunch is on me... you have helped me and you didn't know it. K. x” Of course as with the significant time the riders give to the charity you will not be surprised to hear he put the fiver into one of the Blood Bike's pots."
Blood Bikes have been delivering vital supplies to hospitals around the country since the 1960s, however were only recognised as an emergency service in the 2018 autumn budget.
In 2017 the NHS recorded more than 93,000 runs by Blood Bikers across the UK.