green book editorial August 2018

The summer weather continues to be very helpful to the trade after the very wintery start to the year put the buying season back several weeks. As this editorial is written the forecast is still reasonable and as you will see below in the used market section it is having a positive effect.

New Market

So the latest figures available from the MCIA (June) see the total number of registrations up by close to 1,000 from 12,140 to 13,089, an increase of 7.8%. The year to date (Y-T-D) is also in a positive, ok a smaller one at 2%, but still more than the first half of 2017. At the halfway point of the year, the total number of new registrations has moved from 56,677 to a 2018 Y-T-D total of 57,784. Across the styles it is again mainly a message of growth compared to the same period last year. Touring has a drop, but only a handful, the big loser on a -20% for the month is Supersport. This is a situation we have seen for some time as the rider population ages and moves onto other types. Within other types the big winner this month is Naked puts on 27.7% more than June 2017. Both these changes are no different to the overall pattern seen in a time period that could be measured in years, but both have changes for the month exceeding the Y-T-D. It is always the case that there will be offers and perceived money value for extras added to base bikes and these tend to be applied as the quiet times are around. But there just “feels” some manufacturers are applying them earlier, continuing them through the selling season and trying to increase market share on price rather than model range or innovation.

June 2018 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style

Mopeds	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to data		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Jun-18	Jun-17	Change	Jun-18	Jun-17	2018	2017	% Change	2018	2017
Scooter	422	522	-19.2%	81.6%	85.7%	2,032	2,762	-26.4%	83.1%	88.7%
Other	95	87	9.2%	18.4%	14.3%	412	351	17.4%	16.9%	11.3%
Totals	517	609	-15.1%	100.0%	100.0%	2,444	3,113	-21.5%	100.0%	100.0%

As mentioned above, there are positives in the style categories, but it is not always necessarily the summer type of leisure rider making a purchase. It could be fair to assume the engine table enlightens us more as to the type of rider buying. In June the largest market share of 29.1% went to the 51-125cc range, accompanied by a large increase of 21.7% over the same period last year.  The next band up 125-650cc saw the largest monthly gain by putting close to a quarter more on the road than last June. Larger capacities had a stagnant time and the over 1000cc band dropping. There can be panic or elation caused by reading too much into these changes over a short period of time, so Y-T-D gives a better picture. The sub 125cc sector even after a good month and the largest share of the market for the first half of the year, has seen a small increase of 7.1%, so the learner market is showing reasonable signs. The strong positive for H1 is again the next band up. Commuters/A2 types 26.2% up is an encouraging sign as to long term PTW usage.

June 2018 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Engine Band

Engine Band	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Jun-18	Jun-17	Change	Jun-18	Jun-17	2018	2017	% Change	2018	2017
0-50cc	539	621	-13.2%	4.1%	5.1%	2,557	3,166	-19.2%	4.4%	5.6%
51-125cc	3,815	3,136	21.7%	29.1%	25.8%	16,505	15,408	7.1%	28.6%	27.2%
126-650cc	2,275	1,822	24.9%	17.4%	15.0%	11,331	8,982	26.2%	19.6%	15.8%
651-1000cc	3,618	3,554	1.8%	27.6%	29.3%	14,362	16,334	-12.1%	24.9%	28.8%
Over 1000cc	2,842	3,007	-5.5%	21.7%	24.8%	13,029	12,787	1.9%	22.5%	22.6%
Total Registrations	13,089	12,140	7.8%	100.0%	100.0%	57,784	56,677	2.0%	100.0%	100.0%

June 2018 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style

Mopeds	Highest Registering Model by style	Jun-18
Scooter	Yamaha AEROX 50	34
Other	Lexmoto HUNTER 50 TD 50 Q	12

Motorcycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Jun-18
Adventure Sport	BMW R 1200 GS	217
Custom	Honda CMX 500 REBEL	113
Naked	Honda CB 125 F	254
Scooter	Honda PCX 125	283
Sport/Tour	Kawasaki Z1000 SX	156
Supersport	BMW S 1000 RR	134
Touring	BMW R 1200 RT	74
TRAIL/ENDURO	Honda CRF 250 LA	67

Tricycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Jun-18
SCOOTER	Piaggio MP3 500 LT SPORT ABS	10
OTHER	Harley-Davidson TRI GLIDE ULTRA 1745	7

June 2018 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size

Engine Band	Highest Registering Model by Engine Band	Jun-18
0-50cc	Yamaha AEROX 50	34
51-125cc	Honda PCX 125	283
126-650cc	Honda CB 650 F	142
651-1000cc	Triumph STREET TRIPLE RS	155
Over 1000cc	BMW R 1200 GS	217

June 2018 - New Registrations by Brand

Major Brands	Jun-18
Honda	2,439
Yamaha	1,491
BMW	1,358
Triumph	1,329
Kawasaki	872
Suzuki	849
Harley-Davidson	612
KTM	555
Ducati	550
Lexmoto	412

Used Market

As touched on in the first line of this month’s market update, even though there was a bad weather affected start to the riding season, or more a stall after a reasonable first few weeks of the year, but the weather played ball and a return of the good feeling the industry gets when things are selling. That said there has been mentions of “it’s too warm to ride” heard in more than one place. Overall though dealers spoken to in this last research period have been virtually to a man in agreement that it has continued to be hit and miss, with periods of good sales interspersed with slower periods. But the real test of where prices are going is the confidence and need to replace stock. The confidence is still there at the moment and the willingness to continue to pay “summer” prices. So with the exception of normal housekeeping on a very few models, dealer sentiment coupled with the other forms of research we carry out have led to overall stability with this month’s prices.

Auction

In the auction halls it is sometimes easier to spot any movements in the sentiment of the trades buying patterns at the first point of any change. The reason being is there are multiple buyers all in one place looking at many different types of machine, so it is a good starting point in identifying change that can then be confirmed/clarified within the showrooms and dealers in general. The bigger BCA Peterborough sale in this last research period as has been normal this year, contained a large entry from Black Horse, which as usual saw virtually all of them sell. Three quarters of the total entry saw the hammer drop and overall the average difference was four percent below the CAP reported adjusted figures. Noticeable in this and the recent sales containing the finance providers entries is the number of lots around the three year old range. Some PCP handbacks not taken back in part exchange or sold privately can be a good indicator to the saturation of that particular model in the market. There is more of the popular models of this type on offer, but as they were popular this is to be expected and at the moment a spike in supply of one particular model can be attributed to this and will be crosschecked with dealer sentiment and adjusted. Once the buyers fees are taken into account this is close enough to indicate as above there is little indication of drastic movement. In Rotherham there was a similar sold ratio at 71% but the final tally was 103% of CAP. There was a good mix of ages and models to gain a feel for the market. As there is a constant attendance in this sale irrespective of a flushed entry list from one provider, a more rounded idea of the auction market is available.

End Notes

In what is becoming a regular spot in this section is the continuation of our industry being tarnished with crimes committed on two wheels, not because they are riders but because they are the quickest way to get around in traffic. Honda have been the first major manufacturer to step up to the mark and have teamed up with Datatool and its TrakKing device. They are fitting free trackers to all new road-going Hondas from the beginning of July 2018. Current owners will also get a discount on fitting at a Honda dealer. The customers will have to pay the £10 a month subscription. After several conversations centred around this problem recently, it has been noted that some dealers are concerned that the increase in insurance premiums is starting to have negative effects on sales, especially around London. This is not only on smaller engines sizes, or scooters, but is impacting larger ones.

A subject that has been seen and encouraged before on these pages is lady riders. Just as this editorial hits the street with Augusts pricing product, on 29^th July, more than 1200 female motorcyclists will set off from Lynn’s Raven Café in Whitchurch in an attempt to break its previous record (set last year) of 1132 lady riders, (which beat an event at the Ace Café),  with the ‘World’s Largest All Female Biker Meet’. Many bike meets raise money for charities and this one is no exception. The two previous events have raised almost £8500 for UK charities and funds raised this year will be split between the British Bikers Relief Foundation (BBRF), which offers support to injured motorcyclists and their families and Shropshire, Staffordshire and Cheshire Blood Bikes. According to Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) statistics, the number of women taking their motorcycle tests rose by 33% last year, compared to the number who took tests in 2013/14. The largest group of female licence holders by age are women aged 51-years-old, with 11,810 of them holding an A1, A2 or A licence and women aged between 41 and 53 represent a higher ratio of female to males taking a theory test. Of all motorcycle theory tests taken between 2016/17 around 9% were women, which rises for those aged 41 – 53, with 16% of all theory tests taken by 53-year-old women. Karen Cole of the MCIA commented: “Women make up around 8.6% of all licence holders on average, but a very different picture emerges when you break this down by age. Among younger women the ratio of female to male licence holders is low, for example of all license holders aged 19, only 5% are women but this rises to 12% for women in their 40s.” She also said “There was a 50% rise in the number of women doing theory tests between 2013/14 and 2016/17. This number was even higher for women over 50, which increased during the same time period by 55%.” The aim is to raise awareness of women on two wheels and encourage manufacturers to increase their female bike ranges. From our conversations with lady riders it is understandable that physiological differences would suggest that getting the best protection from riding gear, different designs are required and sometimes the same can be said about machines. But a lot just want to be seen as equals and just riders not to be treated differently or have only pink gear available. Tip your helmet to the ladies on a successful world record and make dealerships friendly places for them.