green book editorial September 2017

There is always something going on in the market, sometimes large changes, sometimes not. Adapt and move on is usually the only answer. Recently there has been much attention in the press about the plans for the Government to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2040. As yet there has been no mention of inclusion of motorcycles, but if there is a substantially lower demand for fossil fuel, it is obviously unlikely there will be much made and consequently as a specialist fuel it will be very expensive. This ban is aimed at new sales, so up until that time the internal combustion engine will still be sold new, or will it? Bashing ideas around with our car editors we all came to the conclusion that it will not be statute law driving the market, but manufacturers and the market. Volvo recently announced that within a couple of years they will not be producing single fossil fuel cars and there are more alternative powered two-wheelers arriving. Just look at the Zero TT if you think they can’t perform and look at a twenty year old phone if you think batteries are not going to improve.

Interesting how the rest of the EU is performing on electric mopeds, motorcycles and quadricycles, where registrations reached 13,089 units during Q2 2017. This is an increase of 30.5% on the same period of Q2 2016 (10,576 units). Looking at the 78.1% increase of electric mopeds to 10,204 and a fifth of that number (1,995 +23.5%) of electric motorcycles registered in Europe, is it the younger riders who are taking to the idea?

New Market

July MCIA new registration numbers are still showing an overall negative, with an 11.9% fall from 11,063 to 9,746 for the month of July and the year to date at 66,423 is 13.8% less than 2016 or 11,072 less registrations.

July 2017 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style

Mopeds	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Jul-17	Jul-16	Change	Jul-17	Jul-16	2017	2016	% Change	2017	2016
Scooter	571	656	-13.0%	85.6%	91.5%	3,333	4,439	-24.9%	88.2%	91.3%
Other	96	61	57.4%	14.4%	8.5%	447	422	5.9%	11.8%	8.7%
Totals	667	717	-7.0%	100.0%	100.0%	3,780	4,861	-22.2%	100.0%	100.0%

Amongst the plethora of styles suffering double digit percentage losses Trail/Enduro suffered the worst, but in real numbers terms Scooter lost 533 registrations compared to the same month last year. Only Adventure sector posted a positive, helped along by the best seller in the group, Yamaha’s Tracer 700 selling 180. For the year 10,649 less by the end of the seventh month is 13.8% less than last year and with reports from researched dealers reporting indifferent new plate sales as yet, this situation shows no sign of improvement. 2017 should break into six-figures, but take into account the rush to register Euro 3 models last December, the percentage drop is only likely to increase.

July 2017 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Engine Band

Engine Band	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Jul-17	Jul-16	Change	Jul-17	Jul-16	2017	2016	% Change	2017	2016
0-50cc	688	727	-5.4%	7.1%	6.6%	3,854	4,964	-22.4%	5.8%	6.4%
51-125cc	3,216	4,643	-30.7%	33.0%	42.0%	18,624	27,528	-32.3%	28.0%	35.7%
126-650cc	1,604	1,585	1.2%	16.5%	14.3%	10,586	11,800	-10.3%	15.9%	15.3%
651-1000cc	2,371	2,390	-0.8%	24.3%	21.6%	18,705	18,503	1.1%	28.2%	24.0%
Over 1000cc	1,867	1,718	8.7%	19.2%	15.5%	14,654	14,277	2.6%	22.1%	18.5%
Total Registrations	9,746	11,063	-11.9%	100.0%	100.0%	66,423	77,072	-13.8%	100.0%	100.0%

Yet again the sub 125cc machines have been hit the hardest and 51-125 sector reducing by close to a third. With the year 10,649 less overall the 1,110 less 50cc and the 8,904 reduction in the sub 125’s (adding up to 10,114) it is easy to see where the registration problem we are having this year comes from.

July 2017 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style

Mopeds	Highest Registering Model by style	Jul-17
Scooter	Lexmoto FMR 50 WY 50 QT-58	68
Other	Lexmoto HUNTER 50 TD 50 Q	15

Motorcycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Jul-17
Adventure Sport	Yamaha TRACER 700	180
Custom	Triumph BONNEVILLE BOBBER	121
Naked	Honda CB 125 F	179
Scooter	Honda PCX 125	203
Sport/Tour	Kawasaki Z1000 SX	91
Supersport	Yamaha YZF R125 ABS	103
Touring	BMW R 1200 RT	42
TRAIL/ENDURO	Honda CRF 250 LA	29

Tricycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Jul-17
SCOOTER	Piaggio MP3 500 LT SPORT ABS	14
OTHER	Can-Am SPYDER F3 1330 ACE	28

July 2017 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size

Engine Band	Highest Registering Model by Engine Band	Jul-17
0-50cc	Lexmoto FMR 50 WY 50 QT-58	68
51-125cc	Honda PCX 125	203
126-650cc	Piaggio VESPA GTS 300 SUPER ABS	95
651-1000cc	Yamaha TRACER 700	180
Over 1000cc	BMW R 1200 GS	125

July 2017 - New Registrations by Brand

Major Manufacturers by Brand	Jul-17
Honda	1,742
Yamaha	1,588
Triumph	735
BMW	682
Kawasaki	583
Harley-Davidson	469
Piaggio	468
Lexmoto	466
KTM	432
Suzuki	378

Occasionally we compare the EU market to our own in this editorial, to give everyone an idea of how we are performing. In Q2 of this year according to the latest figures released today by the European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers combined registrations of motorcycles and mopeds in the EU have reached 682,008 units, a decrease of 3% compared to the same period last year. Italy after a long period of decline was the best performing market of the year, with 137,483 units (+5.9%). France increased (134,036 units, +4.5%). But the woes continue around the other large European markets such as Germany (102,929 units -12.6%), Spain (76,558 units -5.3%) and of course our domestic market (56,677 units -14.1%). EU motorcycle only registrations reached 520,846 units in the quarter, or a 4.9% reduction to the same period last year. Italy, currently the largest in Europe with 124,913 units registered was 6.6% up, France with 91,494 also increased by 2.6%. But losses in Germany on 88,322 units -12.3% down, Spain 67,373 units -8.1% negative and the at home 53,549 units giving a negative 13.4%. On the EU moped front in total there was a 3.66% increase to 161,162 units with the two largest European markets, France and the Netherlands increasing by 42,542 units (+9%) and 37,032 (+8.4%) respectively. In Germany 14,067 units is a minus 14.8% and we all know the problem the sector is having in our domestic market.

Used Market

Comment from the trade is pointing to what could be described as typical for this time of year, with the impending quieter times becoming a thought rattling around dealers heads. There are still deals to be done, but holidays are possibly having the usual effect and as far as stock, there is not as big a problem as demand diminishes. But as prices start reducing with a reduced trade demand, there is proportionally more interest from the lucky ones where cash-flow is on their side and bargains for next year have more chance of surfacing. On the subject of bargains, they are not limited to the trade, but are starting to surface in a significant number, for retail customers. Offers and the time of year have led to the lowering of prices for a large number of models in this month’s data release.

Auction

The BCA sale during this research period was plagued with computer problems and the on-line system was not working. As a consequence of the Eurozone buyers, the odd domestic buyer who uses the system and very few physically attending the overall result was below 90% of CAP figures from less than a third of the 70 entries that sold. Further North in Rotherham the MAG sale saw three quarters of the 132 entries find new owners. And although as the season starts to threaten it is all done but the shouting, entries levels similar to the rest of the year saw the overall return of 99% of CAP figures. The attendance was strong, there were some quality entries that drew attention and made strong money, but noticeable was an increase in less than top-notch condition. At both sales there is an air of dealers clearing out some of the less desirable stock while there is still the possibility of some demand.

End Notes

Triumph and Indian manufacturer Bajaj are to collaborate in developing a range of mid-capacity motorcycles for the world market. Triumph said: “The objective of this partnership is to deliver a range of outstanding mid–capacity motorcycles benefiting from the collective strengths of both companies.“

And on the Triumph subject - insert jingoistic flag waving here - was the fastest-growing major European motorcycle manufacturer in the first half of 2017. Global retail sales up 11.3% up to 37,825 bikes, just beating KTM increasing 11% and BMW with 9.5%.

After a long period of losses from its motorcycle division, Suzuki’s first-quarter results are showing an improvement with worldwide revenue from bikes and ATVs in the April-June period rising by 21.6% to £419.9m. Associated operating profit was £13.7m, after an operating loss of £3.8m in the period last year. Global net sales volume was 21.2% (up to 294,000 units), with 215,000 of them in Asian markets, where there was a 26.6% increase. Other emerging countries grew by 8.1% (to 41,000), Suzuki’s Japanese domestic market improved by 12.6% (to 16,000), North America up 33.3% (to 8000) only Europe fell by 6.6% (to 14,000).

New and revised products helped BMW Motorrad achieve record figures in its half-yearly 2017 corporate results. Revenue from motorcycles, maxi-scooters, spares and accessories increased by 10% to £1.18bn, operating profit up 19.3% to £204.5m and operating margin from 16% to 17.4%. Pre-tax profit was 19.4% up to £203.6m. Up 9.5% for the first six months of 2017, retail sales reached 88,389.

Honda’s global motorcycle operations grew strongly in its first fiscal quarter to 30 June. Total worldwide sales volume put on 8% to 4.7 million units. Asian markets were 8.6% up at 4.22 million. Slightly worse news in Latin America with a 3.8% fall to 277,000.

Markets with higher-priced products were consistently positive with Europe in front, increasing by 12.5% to 81,000 units, North America up 2.6% to 80,000 and the domestic Japanese market with a massive 44.8% up with 42,000units. The three-monthly revenue from bikes increased by 17.6% (to £3.49bn), operating profit through the roof increasing 153.4% (to £541m) and operating margin doubled from 7.2% last year to 15.5%.

With a 14.8% overall share (26.1% of scooter), Piaggio Group, Europe’s biggest - had a very good first half of 2017. Global scooter and motorcycle sales volume up by 11% to 202,100 units, total revenue rose by 2.7% (to £649.3m) and operating profit improved by 10.9% to £47.4m with net profit increasing by 17.4% (to £18.9m).

After a long period of quite large growth the half-yearly results for Ducati have levelled as global retail sales grew by 0.1% (to 34,854), Scramblers Diavel, Monster and Streetfighter models also lost ground, but dual-sport types including Hypermotard and Multistrada models was 7.5% up (to 9,457). Better news for supersport and superbike which rose by 27.2% (to 5,971).

Mentioned last month in this section and continuing to hit the news, the increasing crime committed using two-wheels has some possible good news with criminals caught with acid to receive the same prison sentences to those convicted of carrying a knife. The public outcry over the recent spate which has more than doubled in London over the past three years, according to official data, spurred on official intervention after the home secretary’s announcement on 16 July. “We Ride London” will have held a second mass protest ride-out in the capital by the time you read this, “in support of the police in chasing and arresting motorcycle and scooter thieves”. Remember, this is a very small criminal element who are not riders and we don’t want them associated in any way with the majority of genuine riders or the industry.