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green book editorial November 2017

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There have been several conversations had around the subject of electric powered two wheelers, increased by the Governments aim to do away with fossil fuelled vehicles. It will happen that is assured, but when and how quickly is a question that is difficult to answer. To get consumers to use alternative fuelled vehicles of any type there has to be the vehicles available and an infrastructure to support re-charging. To shed light on how the large amount of choice in both areas have had in the car market, September new car registrations declined 9.3% (to 426,170), but sales of alternative fuel vehicles grew by 41%. The Metropolitan police have recently taken a number of hydrogen powered Suzuki Burgman’s and although not available to the general public will be a good “test of concept” that will no doubt receive some press attention. Total registrations of electric mopeds, motorcycles and quadricycles between January 2017 and June 2017 in the EU reached 13,089 units. Split down to 10,204 electric mopeds, 1,995 electric motorcycles and 1,610 quadricycles representing an increase of 30.5% compared the same period of 2016, when 10,576 units were registered. The countries with the highest number of motorcycles registered were: France (615), Spain (444) and Germany (325) and Austria (146). The largest registrations of mopeds were recorded in France (3,116), the Netherlands (2,516), Belgium (2,013) and Spain (774). In the UK electric Moped went from 134 last year down to 83 (-38%) and Motorcycles from 78 to 36 (-53.8%) this year.

New Market

“Oh dear” is the polite version. PTW sales fell 23.6% (12,228) in September compared with the same month last year. Let’s get the reasons (excuses?) out of the way, the economy, exchange rate, Brexit or many of the number of other’s. The year so far see’s the registrations are 15.7% less than the same period in 2016.

September 2017 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style

Mopeds

Registrations

%

Market Share (%)

Year to date

YTD

Market Share (%)

Sep-17

Sep-16

Change

Sep-17

Sep-16

2017

2016

% Change

2017

2016

Scooter

729

940

-22.4%

82.6%

89.2%

4,579

5,991

-23.6%

87.1%

91.0%

Other

154

114

35.1%

17.4%

10.8%

677

592

14.4%

12.9%

9.0%

Totals

883

1,054

-16.2%

100.0%

100.0%

5,256

6,583

-20.2%

100.0%

100.0%

Motorcycles

Registrations

%

Market Share (%)

Year to date

YTD

Market Share (%)

Sep-17

Sep-16

Change

Sep-17

Sep-16

2017

2016

% Change

2017

2016

Adventure Sport

2,624

2,413

8.7%

23.3%

16.3%

15,357

15,278

0.5%

19.3%

16.2%

Custom

847

1,020

-17.0%

7.5%

6.9%

6,716

8,203

-18.1%

8.4%

8.7%

Naked

3,577

4,711

-24.1%

31.7%

31.7%

25,750

28,433

-9.4%

32.3%

30.2%

Scooter

2,165

3,405

-36.4%

19.2%

22.9%

14,740

20,585

-28.4%

18.5%

21.9%

Sport/Tour

308

705

-56.3%

2.7%

4.7%

2,593

3,514

-26.2%

3.3%

3.7%

Supersport

959

1,572

-39.0%

8.5%

10.6%

8,062

10,918

-26.2%

10.1%

11.6%

Touring

284

307

-7.5%

2.5%

2.1%

1,932

1,999

-3.4%

2.4%

2.1%

Trail/Enduro

482

674

-28.5%

4.3%

4.5%

4,344

4,995

-13.0%

5.5%

5.3%

Unspecified

30

37

-18.9%

0.3%

0.2%

111

153

-27.5%

0.1%

0.2%

Totals

11,276

14,844

-24.0%

100.0%

100.0%

79,605

94,078

-15.4%

100.0%

100.0%

Tricycles

Registrations

%

Market Share (%)

Year to date

YTD

Market Share (%)

Sep-17

Sep-16

Change

Sep-17

Sep-16

2017

2016

% Change

2017

2016

Scooter

53

71

-25.4%

0.4%

0.4%

415

562

-26.2%

0.5%

0.6%

Other

16

33

-51.5%

0.1%

0.2%

231

192

20.3%

0.3%

0.2%

Total Registrations

69

104

-33.7%

0.6%

0.6%

646

754

-14.3%

0.8%

0.7%

Summary

Registrations

%

Market Share (%)

Year to date

YTD

Market Share (%)

Sep-17

Sep-16

Change

Sep-17

Sep-16

2017

2016

% Change

2017

2016

Total Moped, Motorcycle & Tricycles (exc Scooters)

9,281

11,586

-19.9%

75.9%

72.4%

65,773

74,277

-11.4%

76.9%

73.2%

Total Scooters

2,947

4,416

-33.3%

24.1%

27.6%

19,734

27,138

-27.3%

23.1%

26.8%

Total Registrations

12,228

16,002

-23.6%

100.0%

100.0%

85,507

101,415

-15.7%

100.0%

100.0%

All except one of the sectors saw a major fall and all the sectors seeing an increased loss over the year-to-date losses seen compared to 2016. That one being Adventure Sport with 211 more than 2016 in September 2017 and the only sector still positive for the YTD. One point to note though is these numbers have been helped on by the best-selling model for the new plate, Honda’s Africa Twin.

September 2017 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style

Mopeds

Highest Registering Model by style

Sep-17

Scooter

Longjia LJ 50 QT-3L ECHO 50

82

Other

Lexmoto HUNTER 50 TD 50 Q

52

Motorcycles

Highest Registering Model by style

Sep-17

Adventure Sport

Honda CRF 1000

523

Custom

Triumph BONNEVILLE BOBBER

99

Naked

Honda CB 125 F

246

Scooter

Honda PCX 125

333

Sport/Tour

BMW R 1200 RS

69

Supersport

Yamaha YZF R125 ABS

99

Touring

BMW R 1200 RT

60

TRAIL/ENDURO

Honda CRF 250 LA

54

Tricycles

Highest Registering Model by style

Sep-17

SCOOTER

Piaggio MP3 300 YOURBAN LT

19

OTHER

Unspecified Other T/C UNSPEC 126 - 650 C 4

4

September 2017 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size

Engine Band

Highest Registering Model by Engine Band

Sep-17

0-50cc

Longjia LJ 50 QT-3L ECHO 50

82

51-125cc

Honda PCX 125

333

126-650cc

Yamaha X-MAX 300

74

651-1000cc

Honda CRF 1000

523

Over 1000cc

BMW R 1200 GS

277

Not only has it kept the sector marginally positive but has also had a similar effect on the engine band it sits in (651-1000cc), also just creeping into a small month-on–month growth.

September 2017 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Engine Band

Engine Band

Registrations

%

Market Share (%)

Year to date

YTD

Market Share (%)

Sep-17

Sep-16

Change

Sep-17

Sep-16

2017

2016

% Change

2017

2016

0-50cc

901

1,073

-16.0%

7.4%

6.7%

5,367

6,718

-20.1%

6.3%

6.6%

51-125cc

3,606

5,672

-36.4%

29.5%

35.4%

24,804

37,219

-33.4%

29.0%

36.7%

126-650cc

1,951

2,617

-25.4%

16.0%

16.4%

13,690

15,637

-12.5%

16.0%

15.4%

651-1000cc

3,268

3,225

1.3%

26.7%

20.2%

23,385

23,097

1.2%

27.3%

22.8%

Over 1000cc

2,502

3,415

-26.7%

20.5%

21.3%

18,261

18,744

-2.6%

21.4%

18.5%

Total Registrations

12,228

16,002

-23.6%

100.0%

100.0%

85,507

101,415

-15.7%

100.0%

100.0%

Unfortunately, the continuing woes have been seen in the starter capacity 51-125cc market. But the reviewed month actually saw the losses increase as 2,066 less registrations made the decline from 2016 well over a third less. You will have to go back seven years to 2010 to see a lower number in this band. Strangely that year also saw the total Y-T-D numbers almost a similar -14.4% when comparing to the previous year. As there are many offers ranging from low rates to extra kit and in some cases both currently in place from a broad number of manufacturers the effect on sold numbers will soon indicate if they have encouraged buyers to make a decision.

Used Market

Almost a universal pattern has been reported by dealers over the last few months. August as reported previously here, it started to go quiet, followed by a similar September. But it has been mentioned in most cases that there has been some used activity moving into October. As the industry moves into the quiet time of retail activity, it is worth a mention that the industry buying patterns have changed over the last decade. Before the mass migration of machines to the Euro zone the trade buying pattern was similar to retail patterns, with the exception it preceded it by a month or two. It makes sense, as the customers start buying around Spring, the retailer gets the stock ready around February. And then as retail demand slows in the third Quarter, the trade has already started to thin-out the stock holding as early as July or as late as September, dependant on retail demand and affected by the weather, with Indian Summers seeing strong retail activity well into October on the odd occasion. When the amount of used bikes available was high, there was a definite and large difference between the high and low points through the year. But as exporting took hold - an estimated 300,000 units over the last ten year – and with 30,000 motorcycles predicted to have been stolen in 2017, (only 40% of them will be recovered), it has placed us in the position where the rush for next year’s stock starts earlier. The trade that has a cash-flow allowing them to sit on stock for a few months are actively out buying while price are on the downward part of the cycle. As more are now playing the Winter buying game, more competition for the available leads to increased prices and even though there is still highs and lows through the year, the peaks and troughs are closer together. This leads us to alterations in this month’s products. There has been in general a movement down in reported prices.

Auction

BCA had a lower entry list as there was no Black Horse entries this last research period, but still 119 entries were there to tempt anyone looking for an early bargain on next year’s stock. Trade numbers attending lower and coupled with the time of year, plus higher reserves for lots taken into stock while “summer” prices were still in effect made for lower sold numbers at 48% (57/119) and 94% of CAP reported figures. MAG had a better attendance and more of the 107 entries were higher quality. Resulting in 62 selling (58%) and returning 98% of CAP. In both sales it is evident that the cream is still being sought and is still selling in the trade. Anything not almost ready for retail is finding it hard in the halls, even though this has been the case for some time now, it is even more evident as cash-flow and daylight is at its lowest. 

End Notes

During latest quarter to the end of September, revenue from motorcycles and related products for Harley-Davidson fell by 11.9% (to £725.9m). Operating profit dived by 45.8% to £73m and net profit a negative 40.2% (to £51.5m). The year-to-date made for better, but still a negative with revenue dropping by 9.6% (to £3.33bn), operating profit down by 19.4% (at £595.8m) and net profit 20.4% lower (£387.4m). The US domestic market reduced by 8.1% (to 41,793) and exports fell by 4.6% (to 22,416). Europe was the only region in a positive positon as the quarter was up 1.9% (to 8,970) and Y-T-D 1.4% positive selling 33,311 bikes.

In the better news section the number of motorcyclists killed on UK roads is down by 13% from 365 to 319, according to the Department for Transport and this is on the back of an increase in the amount of motorcycle traffic. The Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents (RoSPA) says this "demonstrates that motorcycle safety messaging is having a positive effect". The good news for the industry is the result is opposite to the overall picture where motorcyclists were the only road user to see a decrease in fatalities but unfortunately shows an increase in the number of vulnerable road users being killed on Britain’s roads. The RoSPA figures released on 28 September show that 1,792 people were killed in 2016, the highest number of deaths since 2011. Many of these involved vulnerable road users, pedestrian deaths up by 10% to 448 compared with 2015 and cyclist deaths up by 2% to 102. Bad news for the young as the number of children killed is up by 28% on 2015 with 69 under-15s dying in 2016. Of all child road casualties 38% (15,976) were pedestrians, and nearly a quarter (22%) were killed or injured during the afternoon school run (3-5pm). Statistics released in the Department for Transport’s ‘Reported road casualties in Great Britain: 2016 annual report’ revealed that motorcyclists were the only road user to see a decrease in fatalities on 2015, from 365 to 319 – accounting for 18 per cent of the total road deaths. Slightly injured motorcyclists also decreased 7% from 14,511 to 13,425. These declines were despite a 2% increase in motorcycle road use on the previous year, which saw motorcycles cover 2.8 billion miles in 2016.

As the racing season starts to wind up, Brits again having a good time in WSB even if the series is not the best it has ever been. Noticeably there was little reporting in the press and there is a petition to get Johnathan Rea into the “Sports Personality of The Year” running. Shakey Byrne won an unprecedented sixth British Superbike Championship win in his first ever successful back-to-back title defence at the weekend. Going into the last round at Brands he had a 33-point deficit. Some might say it was Leon Haslam’s title to lose, but reasons/excuses/170mph crash aside, the way the lad was carried from the ambulance by his Dad, Rocket Ron, to the finish line to congratulate the winner was a lesson in sportsmanship many sports should take a long look at. 

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