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There have been several conversations had around the subject of electric powered two wheelers, increased by the Governments aim to do away with fossil fuelled vehicles. It will happen that is assured, but when and how quickly is a question that is difficult to answer. To get consumers to use alternative fuelled vehicles of any type there has to be the vehicles available and an infrastructure to support re-charging. To shed light on how the large amount of choice in both areas have had in the car market, September new car registrations declined 9.3% (to 426,170), but sales of alternative fuel vehicles grew by 41%. The Metropolitan police have recently taken a number of hydrogen powered Suzuki Burgman’s and although not available to the general public will be a good “test of concept” that will no doubt receive some press attention. Total registrations of electric mopeds, motorcycles and quadricycles between January 2017 and June 2017 in the EU reached 13,089 units. Split down to 10,204 electric mopeds, 1,995 electric motorcycles and 1,610 quadricycles representing an increase of 30.5% compared the same period of 2016, when 10,576 units were registered. The countries with the highest number of motorcycles registered were: France (615), Spain (444) and Germany (325) and Austria (146). The largest registrations of mopeds were recorded in France (3,116), the Netherlands (2,516), Belgium (2,013) and Spain (774). In the UK electric Moped went from 134 last year down to 83 (-38%) and Motorcycles from 78 to 36 (-53.8%) this year.
New Market
“Oh dear” is the polite version. PTW sales fell 23.6% (12,228) in September compared with the same month last year. Let’s get the reasons (excuses?) out of the way, the economy, exchange rate, Brexit or many of the number of other’s. The year so far see’s the registrations are 15.7% less than the same period in 2016.
September 2017 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style
Mopeds
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Sep-17
Sep-16
Change
Sep-17
Sep-16
2017
2016
% Change
2017
2016
Scooter
729
940
-22.4%
82.6%
89.2%
4,579
5,991
-23.6%
87.1%
91.0%
Other
154
114
35.1%
17.4%
10.8%
677
592
14.4%
12.9%
9.0%
Totals
883
1,054
-16.2%
100.0%
100.0%
5,256
6,583
-20.2%
100.0%
100.0%
Motorcycles |
Registrations |
% |
Market Share (%) |
Year to date |
YTD |
Market Share (%) |
||||
Sep-17 |
Sep-16 |
Change |
Sep-17 |
Sep-16 |
2017 |
2016 |
% Change |
2017 |
2016 |
|
Adventure Sport |
2,624 |
2,413 |
8.7% |
23.3% |
16.3% |
15,357 |
15,278 |
0.5% |
19.3% |
16.2% |
Custom |
847 |
1,020 |
-17.0% |
7.5% |
6.9% |
6,716 |
8,203 |
-18.1% |
8.4% |
8.7% |
Naked |
3,577 |
4,711 |
-24.1% |
31.7% |
31.7% |
25,750 |
28,433 |
-9.4% |
32.3% |
30.2% |
Scooter |
2,165 |
3,405 |
-36.4% |
19.2% |
22.9% |
14,740 |
20,585 |
-28.4% |
18.5% |
21.9% |
Sport/Tour |
308 |
705 |
-56.3% |
2.7% |
4.7% |
2,593 |
3,514 |
-26.2% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
Supersport |
959 |
1,572 |
-39.0% |
8.5% |
10.6% |
8,062 |
10,918 |
-26.2% |
10.1% |
11.6% |
Touring |
284 |
307 |
-7.5% |
2.5% |
2.1% |
1,932 |
1,999 |
-3.4% |
2.4% |
2.1% |
Trail/Enduro |
482 |
674 |
-28.5% |
4.3% |
4.5% |
4,344 |
4,995 |
-13.0% |
5.5% |
5.3% |
Unspecified |
30 |
37 |
-18.9% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
111 |
153 |
-27.5% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Totals |
11,276 |
14,844 |
-24.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
79,605 |
94,078 |
-15.4% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
Tricycles |
Registrations |
% |
Market Share (%) |
Year to date |
YTD |
Market Share (%) |
||||
Sep-17 |
Sep-16 |
Change |
Sep-17 |
Sep-16 |
2017 |
2016 |
% Change |
2017 |
2016 |
|
Scooter |
53 |
71 |
-25.4% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
415 |
562 |
-26.2% |
0.5% |
0.6% |
Other |
16 |
33 |
-51.5% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
231 |
192 |
20.3% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
Total Registrations |
69 |
104 |
-33.7% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
646 |
754 |
-14.3% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
Summary |
Registrations |
% |
Market Share (%) |
Year to date |
YTD |
Market Share (%) |
||||
Sep-17 |
Sep-16 |
Change |
Sep-17 |
Sep-16 |
2017 |
2016 |
% Change |
2017 |
2016 |
|
Total Moped, Motorcycle & Tricycles (exc Scooters) |
9,281 |
11,586 |
-19.9% |
75.9% |
72.4% |
65,773 |
74,277 |
-11.4% |
76.9% |
73.2% |
Total Scooters |
2,947 |
4,416 |
-33.3% |
24.1% |
27.6% |
19,734 |
27,138 |
-27.3% |
23.1% |
26.8% |
Total Registrations |
12,228 |
16,002 |
-23.6% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
85,507 |
101,415 |
-15.7% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
All except one of the sectors saw a major fall and all the sectors seeing an increased loss over the year-to-date losses seen compared to 2016. That one being Adventure Sport with 211 more than 2016 in September 2017 and the only sector still positive for the YTD. One point to note though is these numbers have been helped on by the best-selling model for the new plate, Honda’s Africa Twin.
September 2017 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style
Mopeds
Highest Registering Model by style
Sep-17
Scooter
Longjia LJ 50 QT-3L ECHO 50
82
Other
Lexmoto HUNTER 50 TD 50 Q
52
Motorcycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Sep-17
Adventure Sport
Honda CRF 1000
523
Custom
Triumph BONNEVILLE BOBBER
99
Naked
Honda CB 125 F
246
Scooter
Honda PCX 125
333
Sport/Tour
BMW R 1200 RS
69
Supersport
Yamaha YZF R125 ABS
99
Touring
BMW R 1200 RT
60
TRAIL/ENDURO
Honda CRF 250 LA
54
September 2017 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size
Tricycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Sep-17
SCOOTER
Piaggio MP3 300 YOURBAN LT
19
OTHER
Unspecified Other T/C UNSPEC 126 - 650 C 4
4
Engine Band
Highest Registering Model by Engine Band
Sep-17
0-50cc
Longjia LJ 50 QT-3L ECHO 50
82
51-125cc
Honda PCX 125
333
126-650cc
Yamaha X-MAX 300
74
651-1000cc
Honda CRF 1000
523
Over 1000cc
BMW R 1200 GS
277
Not only has it kept the sector marginally positive but has also had a similar effect on the engine band it sits in (651-1000cc), also just creeping into a small month-on–month growth.
September 2017 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Engine Band
Engine Band
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Sep-17
Sep-16
Change
Sep-17
Sep-16
2017
2016
% Change
2017
2016
0-50cc
901
1,073
-16.0%
7.4%
6.7%
5,367
6,718
-20.1%
6.3%
6.6%
51-125cc
3,606
5,672
-36.4%
29.5%
35.4%
24,804
37,219
-33.4%
29.0%
36.7%
126-650cc
1,951
2,617
-25.4%
16.0%
16.4%
13,690
15,637
-12.5%
16.0%
15.4%
651-1000cc
3,268
3,225
1.3%
26.7%
20.2%
23,385
23,097
1.2%
27.3%
22.8%
Over 1000cc
2,502
3,415
-26.7%
20.5%
21.3%
18,261
18,744
-2.6%
21.4%
18.5%
Total Registrations
12,228
16,002
-23.6%
100.0%
100.0%
85,507
101,415
-15.7%
100.0%
100.0%
Unfortunately, the continuing woes have been seen in the starter capacity 51-125cc market. But the reviewed month actually saw the losses increase as 2,066 less registrations made the decline from 2016 well over a third less. You will have to go back seven years to 2010 to see a lower number in this band. Strangely that year also saw the total Y-T-D numbers almost a similar -14.4% when comparing to the previous year. As there are many offers ranging from low rates to extra kit and in some cases both currently in place from a broad number of manufacturers the effect on sold numbers will soon indicate if they have encouraged buyers to make a decision.
Used Market
Almost a universal pattern has been reported by dealers over the last few months. August as reported previously here, it started to go quiet, followed by a similar September. But it has been mentioned in most cases that there has been some used activity moving into October. As the industry moves into the quiet time of retail activity, it is worth a mention that the industry buying patterns have changed over the last decade. Before the mass migration of machines to the Euro zone the trade buying pattern was similar to retail patterns, with the exception it preceded it by a month or two. It makes sense, as the customers start buying around Spring, the retailer gets the stock ready around February. And then as retail demand slows in the third Quarter, the trade has already started to thin-out the stock holding as early as July or as late as September, dependant on retail demand and affected by the weather, with Indian Summers seeing strong retail activity well into October on the odd occasion. When the amount of used bikes available was high, there was a definite and large difference between the high and low points through the year. But as exporting took hold - an estimated 300,000 units over the last ten year – and with 30,000 motorcycles predicted to have been stolen in 2017, (only 40% of them will be recovered), it has placed us in the position where the rush for next year’s stock starts earlier. The trade that has a cash-flow allowing them to sit on stock for a few months are actively out buying while price are on the downward part of the cycle. As more are now playing the Winter buying game, more competition for the available leads to increased prices and even though there is still highs and lows through the year, the peaks and troughs are closer together. This leads us to alterations in this month’s products. There has been in general a movement down in reported prices.
Auction
BCA had a lower entry list as there was no Black Horse entries this last research period, but still 119 entries were there to tempt anyone looking for an early bargain on next year’s stock. Trade numbers attending lower and coupled with the time of year, plus higher reserves for lots taken into stock while “summer” prices were still in effect made for lower sold numbers at 48% (57/119) and 94% of CAP reported figures. MAG had a better attendance and more of the 107 entries were higher quality. Resulting in 62 selling (58%) and returning 98% of CAP. In both sales it is evident that the cream is still being sought and is still selling in the trade. Anything not almost ready for retail is finding it hard in the halls, even though this has been the case for some time now, it is even more evident as cash-flow and daylight is at its lowest.
End Notes
During latest quarter to the end of September, revenue from motorcycles and related products for Harley-Davidson fell by 11.9% (to £725.9m). Operating profit dived by 45.8% to £73m and net profit a negative 40.2% (to £51.5m). The year-to-date made for better, but still a negative with revenue dropping by 9.6% (to £3.33bn), operating profit down by 19.4% (at £595.8m) and net profit 20.4% lower (£387.4m). The US domestic market reduced by 8.1% (to 41,793) and exports fell by 4.6% (to 22,416). Europe was the only region in a positive positon as the quarter was up 1.9% (to 8,970) and Y-T-D 1.4% positive selling 33,311 bikes.
In the better news section the number of motorcyclists killed on UK roads is down by 13% from 365 to 319, according to the Department for Transport and this is on the back of an increase in the amount of motorcycle traffic. The Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents (RoSPA) says this "demonstrates that motorcycle safety messaging is having a positive effect". The good news for the industry is the result is opposite to the overall picture where motorcyclists were the only road user to see a decrease in fatalities but unfortunately shows an increase in the number of vulnerable road users being killed on Britain’s roads. The RoSPA figures released on 28 September show that 1,792 people were killed in 2016, the highest number of deaths since 2011. Many of these involved vulnerable road users, pedestrian deaths up by 10% to 448 compared with 2015 and cyclist deaths up by 2% to 102. Bad news for the young as the number of children killed is up by 28% on 2015 with 69 under-15s dying in 2016. Of all child road casualties 38% (15,976) were pedestrians, and nearly a quarter (22%) were killed or injured during the afternoon school run (3-5pm). Statistics released in the Department for Transport’s ‘Reported road casualties in Great Britain: 2016 annual report’ revealed that motorcyclists were the only road user to see a decrease in fatalities on 2015, from 365 to 319 – accounting for 18 per cent of the total road deaths. Slightly injured motorcyclists also decreased 7% from 14,511 to 13,425. These declines were despite a 2% increase in motorcycle road use on the previous year, which saw motorcycles cover 2.8 billion miles in 2016.
As the racing season starts to wind up, Brits again having a good time in WSB even if the series is not the best it has ever been. Noticeably there was little reporting in the press and there is a petition to get Johnathan Rea into the “Sports Personality of The Year” running. Shakey Byrne won an unprecedented sixth British Superbike Championship win in his first ever successful back-to-back title defence at the weekend. Going into the last round at Brands he had a 33-point deficit. Some might say it was Leon Haslam’s title to lose, but reasons/excuses/170mph crash aside, the way the lad was carried from the ambulance by his Dad, Rocket Ron, to the finish line to congratulate the winner was a lesson in sportsmanship many sports should take a long look at.