The slow season is well underway according to dealer feedback, we get it every year so no surprise. But after a couple of years of relative stability within the dealer network, talk of grim times are a common occurrence. Unfortunately it is somewhat becoming reality with the closure before the winter really kicks in, of franchised dealers in Cardiff, Daventry and Chichester. Several brands were represented in the closed sites. Conversations with franchised dealers of all brands always turn to the cost, especially when an image change is on the cards, of having the signage over the door and does the outlay have sufficient margin or returns. A point made in the media by the owner of one of the closed sites. This follows a well-known London dealer closing, siting among overheads, the effect of criminal activities involving two-wheelers. If £5 was received after every Brexit conversation had this year, this would be being written on a yacht in the Caribbean, but the concern is understandable as the people running the whole shooting match don’t know what’s happening, the people in our industry are concerned to the consequences being negotiated. Many of the machines we have in the UK come from Japan, who have recently signed an Economic Partnership Agreement that will remove common EU external customs tariffs, that includes the 6% tariff affecting motorcycle imports. On top of cheaper motorbikes, EU consumers will also benefit from harmonisation of type approval on product safety as well as emissions standards, to which some have expressed concern as the free trade deal will not apply to the UK due to Brexit. Trying to find a positive in this, the deal took over ten years to negotiate and will take the next five years to implement and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe recently stated that Japan would welcome Britain with “open arms” to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which includes 11 countries such as Japan, Australia and Canada. Perhaps one country can speed up the process slowed by twenty eight, we can only hope.
New Market
The bottom line in the latest MCIA new registration figures show a 2.2% positive for the plate change month of September. The cloudy times of Euro 4 changeover are washing out of the system so as time moves on the real market emerges from the haze. It’s a positive. There were many schemes of one form or another around during August and September to encourage consumers, but around the usual, so perhaps little effect on the final outcome in real terms. The largest gain was seen in the Sport/Tour style with over a third more than the same period of 2017, although this only equates to 103 more in the small sector. The largest part of the market also showed a healthy positive with 686 more, taking naked to 4,268 of the 12,493 monthly total, a 19.2% increase and 36.4% of the market.
September 2018 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style
Mopeds
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Sep-18
Sep-17
Change
Sep-18
Sep-17
2018
2017
% Change
2018
2017
Scooter
571
729
-21.7%
80.1%
82.6%
3,430
4,580
-25.1%
82.9%
87.1%
Other
142
154
-7.8%
19.9%
17.4%
709
676
4.9%
17.1%
12.9%
Totals
713
883
-19.3%
100.0%
100.0%
4,139
5,256
-21.3%
100.0%
100.0%
|
Motorcycles |
Registrations |
% |
Market Share (%) |
Year to date |
YTD |
Market Share (%) |
||||
|
Sep-18 |
Sep-17 |
Change |
Sep-18 |
Sep-17 |
2018 |
2017 |
% Change |
2018 |
2017 |
|
|
Adventure Sport |
2,228 |
2,624 |
-15.1% |
19.0% |
23.3% |
14,896 |
15,357 |
-3.0% |
18.0% |
19.3% |
|
Custom |
744 |
846 |
-12.1% |
6.3% |
7.5% |
7,156 |
6,674 |
7.2% |
8.7% |
8.4% |
|
Naked |
4,268 |
3,582 |
19.2% |
36.4% |
31.8% |
28,373 |
25,764 |
10.1% |
34.4% |
32.4% |
|
Scooter |
2,245 |
2,165 |
3.7% |
19.1% |
19.2% |
15,362 |
14,740 |
4.2% |
18.6% |
18.5% |
|
Sport/Tour |
406 |
303 |
34.0% |
3.5% |
2.7% |
2,728 |
2,579 |
5.8% |
3.3% |
3.2% |
|
Supersport |
1,048 |
959 |
9.3% |
8.9% |
8.5% |
6,999 |
8,062 |
-13.2% |
8.5% |
10.1% |
|
Touring |
269 |
285 |
-5.6% |
2.3% |
2.5% |
2,143 |
1,975 |
8.5% |
2.6% |
2.5% |
|
Trail/Enduro |
512 |
482 |
6.2% |
4.4% |
4.3% |
4,765 |
4,344 |
9.7% |
5.8% |
5.5% |
|
Unspecified |
4 |
30 |
-86.7% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
177 |
110 |
60.9% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
Totals |
11,724 |
11,276 |
4.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
82,599 |
79,605 |
3.8% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
|
Tricycles |
Registrations |
% |
Market Share (%) |
Year to date |
YTD |
Market Share (%) |
||||
|
Sep-18 |
Sep-17 |
Change |
Sep-18 |
Sep-17 |
2018 |
2017 |
% Change |
2018 |
2017 |
|
|
Scooter |
41 |
53 |
-22.6% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
327 |
415 |
-21.2% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
Other |
15 |
16 |
-6.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
199 |
230 |
-13.5% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
Total Registrations |
56 |
69 |
-18.8% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
526 |
645 |
-18.4% |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
Summary |
Registrations |
% |
Market Share (%) |
Year to date |
YTD |
Market Share (%) |
||||
|
Sep-18 |
Sep-17 |
Change |
Sep-18 |
Sep-17 |
2018 |
2017 |
% Change |
2018 |
2017 |
|
|
Total Moped, Motorcycle & Tricycles (exc Scooters) |
9,636 |
9,281 |
3.8% |
77.1% |
75.9% |
68,145 |
65,771 |
3.6% |
78.1% |
76.9% |
|
Total Scooters |
2,857 |
2,947 |
-3.1% |
22.9% |
24.1% |
19,119 |
19,735 |
-3.1% |
21.9% |
23.1% |
|
Total Registrations |
12,493 |
12,228 |
2.2% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
87,264 |
85,506 |
2.1% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
The 51cc-125cc engine band had a splendid month putting 17.4% more into the market more than last year, 628 on top of the 2017 number of 3,606 and taking the engine band to a tadge over a third of new registrations. The market at this time of year tends to move away from the “norm” as buying patterns change from the leisure rider to commuter and perhaps even school leavers having some effect on the engine sizes purchased. The learner legal size slightly increasing over its year to date market share and the largest sector having a bad month anyway, below the Y-T-D share.
September 2018 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Engine Band
Engine Band
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Sep-18
Sep-17
Change
Sep-18
Sep-17
2018
2017
% Change
2018
2017
0-50cc
720
901
-20.1%
5.8%
7.4%
4,319
5,367
-19.5%
4.9%
6.3%
51-125cc
4,234
3,606
17.4%
33.9%
29.5%
27,028
24,804
9.0%
31.0%
29.0%
126-650cc
2,109
1,951
8.1%
16.9%
16.0%
16,364
13,690
19.5%
18.8%
16.0%
651-1000cc
3,181
3,268
-2.7%
25.5%
26.7%
21,405
23,385
-8.5%
24.5%
27.3%
Over 1000cc
2,249
2,502
-10.1%
18.0%
20.5%
18,148
18,260
-0.6%
20.8%
21.4%
Total Registrations
12,493
12,228
2.2%
100.0%
100.0%
87,264
85,506
2.1%
100.0%
100.0%
The rest of the best seller in category has thrown up little to bat an eye at away from the usual suspects, but worth noting is five of the eight style best seller spots have been filled by Honda who as usual are the top manufacturer. One point worth noting and perhaps after a long campaign is Suzuki leaping up the charts into the top five with a large 44.3% increase.
September 2018 - Highest Registering Model by Style
Mopeds
Highest Registering Model by style
Sep-18
Scooter
Lexmoto ECHO 50
118
Other
Lexmoto HUNTER 50 TD 50 Q
37
Motorcycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Sep-18
Adventure Sport
Honda CRF 1000
232
Custom
Honda CMX 500 REBEL
56
Naked
Honda CB 125 F
257
Scooter
Honda PCX 125
279
Sport/Tour
Kawasaki Z1000 SX
170
Supersport
Yamaha YZF R125 ABS
341
Touring
BMW R 1200 RT
50
TRAIL/ENDURO
Honda CRF 250 LA
50
September 2018 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size
Tricycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Sep-18
SCOOTER
Piaggio MP3 500 LT SPORT ABS
18
OTHER
Can-Am SPYDER F3 1330 ACE
4
Engine Band
Highest Registering Model by Engine Band
Sep-18
0-50cc
Lexmoto ECHO 50
118
51-125cc
Yamaha YZF R125 ABS
341
126-650cc
Honda NSS 300 FORZA
95
651-1000cc
Honda CRF 1000
232
Over 1000cc
BMW R 1200 GS ADVENTURE
222
September 2018 - New Registrations by Brand
Major Brands
Sep-18
Honda
2,628
Yamaha
1,657
BMW
1,199
Triumph
945
Suzuki
772
Kawasaki
768
Lexmoto
582
KTM
527
Harley-Davidson
409
Piaggio
373
Used Market
The inevitable decline in the amounts of used machines finding new owners at this time of year continues, with dealers reporting difficult a trading environment. As always when the going gets tough the proactive outlets find customers, but more so at this time of year, stock mix and pricing becomes more important to keep riders buying. As the low point of both sales and cash-flow starts to bite, the inevitable change in the price a dealer is willing to pay for stock moves in the obvious direction and consequently this month the Green Book has followed in a similar downward direction.
Auction
The obvious change in dealer opinion on used prices is obviously reflected in the prices realised in the auction halls over this research period. The change between seasons is more obvious and defined in results, with both major sales performing “behind book” and less of the entries selling. Comments from buyers at auctions this month have revolved around the phrase “I’ll buy a bargain” and little desperation for stock being exhibited. BCA had 150 entries at the main sale with the usual high entry numbers from Black Horse. 100 sold with a low figure of 91% of CAP affected by large numbers of similar 15 plate models on the way back from terminated PCP deals. As always some adjustment is made by dealers for the higher purchase fees. The MAG sale in Rotherham returned on the whole sale, 94% of CAP, the average deviation equating to £200. 53 of the 121 entries changed ownership. Both auctions suffered from a lower attendance than seen during the high points of the cycle with vendors attempting to dispose of the less desirable, or lower quality stock – usually taken into stock at higher summer prices – the amount sold reflects reserves that can be a little optimistic at the moment.
End Notes
This time of year there is always a report from The Department for Transport that makes for sombre reading, but non the less is part of road use that will never go away. They have released data for reported road casualties in the UK for 2017 which unfortunately sees an increase in fatalities for motorcyclists. There were 349 motorcyclist fatalities last year, a 9% increase since 2016 and motorcycle users of all kinds accounted for 19% of all road deaths in 2017 – a high figure when considering that motorcyclists were just 4% of all road users, but understandable when compared to four-wheeled vehicles usually full of safety aids. The total casualties concerning motorbike users was 18,042, which if any positive can be taken for the stats, is a 7% drop from 2016. 91% of the total were male and 30% were aged between 17 and 24. Close to half of all casualties occurred in accidents in London and the South East. One big positive from the report is the 41% reduction in motorcyclist fatalities overall since 2007.
This month’s positive finish, in the racing world. Record setting Jonathan Rea in WSB, breaking records in what feels like every meeting, with four titles in a row, most wins, most doubles and arguably now the GOAT in the series. It will take some beating and proposed changes in the rules to stop domination of this scale might make it impossible.
And one record that will never be beaten again as Ana Carrasco has made history after becoming the first female rider to win a motorcycle world championship. The 21-year-old Spanish rider grasped the World Supersport 300 title in a race that could have seen several championship winners and live positions broadcast through tense the race did. Eventually after starting 25th and slowly riding through the pack to finish 13th, saw the victory gained for the season by one point. The “ride like a girl” tee shirts in pink has to bring a smile to most faces and cannot do any harm to getting ladies on two wheels.
