Motorcycle Overview November 2019

Brexit is on hold again time of putting this editorial together, so as in what feels like every month for the last three years, nothing has been decided that will affect futures predictions at the moment, but the fall-out and the indecision around the consequences are still lingering. Long term plans by most industries are still in the air waiting on the outcome and blame is still being attributed to it on the slowing activity in the motorcycle market. Strangely, the sentiment from dealers spoken to over the last research period are not reflected in the new registration figures as can be seen below.

New Market

In the latest MCIA new registration figures available for the new plate month of September, there was a 3.9% increase over the same period from last year. The total of 12,978 is an increase of 485 units. Most styles held their ground with the exception of the Sport-tour and Supersport categories which declined by -6.6% and -12.8% respectively. In percentage terms the two large gains in the classes are Custom increasing 27.7% and Train/Enduro up 22.5%, but as both are relatively small sectors, they have limited effect on the overall change. The year-to-date performance in 2019 is 89,283 units, that being a small increase of 2.3% from the previous year (2,015 more). As has been seen over the year, the two touring classed sectors are suffering the worst, but as mentioned previously, is this caused by replacing pure touring types with models more suited to everyday use that are also capable of longer distances with the addition of luggage? The 8.2% increase in the Adventure Sport class suggesting this could be possible.

September 2019 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style

Mopeds	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Sep-19	Sep-18	Change	Sep-19	Sep-18	2019	2018	% Change	2019	2018
Scooter	564	538	4.8%	73.6%	75.5%	3,772	3,397	11.0%	78.8%	82.1%
Other	202	175	15.4%	26.4%	24.5%	1,012	742	36.4%	21.2%	17.9%
Totals	766	713	7.4%	100.0%	100.0%	4,784	4,139	15.6%	100.0%	100.0%

The engine mix sold for the month is sending mixed messages, with 126-650cc increasing by close to a quarter extra on the last years return, but 651-1000cc decreasing (-11.8%) and the largest block, over 1000cc showing 18.5% growth for the period. Perhaps the manufacturer schemes have had some influence, including ones involving dealers registering stock, with no immediate end user in mind? Over the ‘year to date’ most of the bands are seeing little change with the stand out band of 126-650cc moving upwards from last year’s 16,364 to the tune of 14.2%, or in real numbers, a 2,316 increase.

September 2019 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Engine Band

Engine Band	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Sep-19	Sep-18	Change	Sep-19	Sep-18	2019	2018	% Change	2019	2018
0-50cc	802	720	11.4%	6.2%	5.8%	5,108	4,319	18.3%	5.7%	4.9%
51-125cc	4,101	4,234	-3.1%	31.6%	33.9%	27,327	27,028	1.1%	30.6%	31.0%
126-650cc	2,606	2,109	23.6%	20.1%	16.9%	18,680	16,364	14.2%	20.9%	18.8%
651-1000cc	2,805	3,181	-11.8%	21.6%	25.5%	20,133	21,405	-5.9%	22.5%	24.5%
Over 1000cc	2,664	2,249	18.5%	20.5%	18.0%	18,035	18,148	-0.6%	20.2%	20.8%
Total Registrations	12,978	12,493	3.9%	100.0%	100.0%	89,283	87,264	2.3%	100.0%	100.0%

Plate changes tend to increase the value of vehicles and therefore the more it costs, the larger that effect. So it should be of little surprise that big ticket machines benefit and in this particular case when looking down the list of best-selling models in the styles. This in September saw the beneficiary of this thinking being BMW with three models in there, joined by Honda with four filling all but one spot in the ‘Motorcycle’ chart.

September 2019 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style

Mopeds	Highest Registering Model by style	Sep-19
Scooter	Lexmoto ECHO 50	103
Other	Lexmoto HUNTER 50 TD 50 Q	58

Motorcycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Sep-19
Adventure Sport	BMW R 1250 GS ADVENTURE	299
Custom	Honda CMX 500 REBEL	79
Naked	Honda CB 125 F	271
Scooter	Honda PCX 125	340
Sport/Tour	BMW R 1250 RS	112
Supersport	Kawasaki NINJA 125	98
Touring	BMW R 1250 RT	104
TRAIL/ENDURO	Honda CRF 250 LA	77

Tricycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Sep-19
SCOOTER	Piaggio MP3 300 HPE	19
OTHER	Bajaj RE COMPACT 4S	5

September 2019 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size

Engine Band	Highest Registering Model by Engine Band	Sep-19
0-50cc	Lexmoto ECHO 50	103
51-125cc	Honda PCX 125	340
126-650cc	Royal Enfield INTERCEPTOR INT 650	166
651-1000cc	Honda CRF 1000	143
Over 1000cc	BMW R 1250 GS ADVENTURE	299

The above mentioned success in the big engine stakes also has the German brand usurping the usual suspect in second place, Yamaha, into third. Again Royal Enfield makes an appearance in the top ten as there twins continue to sell well.

September 2019 - New Registrations by Brand

Used Market

Quiet is a word much used again over the past month, as the nights draw in its usual at this time of year to be hearing that, unfortunately this has been the case for a while now. The many forms of research carried out is all pointing to continuing further drops in prices that have been reflected in this month’s product. Over the past decade as stock has been dwindling due to exporting, the end of the year starts to see increasing activity by dealers/traders in the lucky position of not having a cash flow situation that excludes them from buying during times of depressed prices. This rush to gain a jump on next seasons stock has started to affect the seasonal changes between high and low reduce up to this year. There has yet again been both trade sentiment and hard data pointing to reducing prices that is not yet pointing to a bottoming out.

Auctions

There is the continuing return of high selling models on PCP in the three-year age range suggesting there are way too many in the market, with the impact on prices that is to be expected. At the BCA Peterborough sale dominated by Black Horse and BMW entries, this is continuing to have a negative impact, especially on the brands successfully selling PCP’s when new. The totals for this sale are, total entries 165, selling 83%, or 137, with the low point all year when compared to CAP figures of 92%. In Rotherham at MAG there was an entry similar to expected of 92, of which 46 sold. Quality in the main was very good and an average for the whole sale was in line with expectations at this time of year at “a couple behind book”, as the trade like to call opinion at this time of year. Both sales appear to be down on attendees, but perhaps just the lack of tyre kickers as the ones there were buying.

End Notes

More mentions this month of electric motorcycles from a few manufactures. The motorcycle press is becoming like the attention seeking tabloid press these days, where sensationalist headlines and overly dramatising any subject is seen as real reporting in an attempt for more readers. After a widely publicised charging issue that halted production of the Harley-Davidson LiveWire, it has now resumed and it was only a single motorcycle affected. They took the correct action by temporarily halting building until in their words "Temporarily stopping LiveWire production allowed us to confirm that the non-standard condition identified on one motorcycle was a singular occurrence." Unfortunately being such a high profile entry into the possible way the industry might move in the long term, there will be a mountain made out of a molehill by some.

Tesla are the biggest electric-only car maker on the planet and it makes sense the business model and infrastructure they have makes them an ideal electric motorcycle maker, for the next big development we will see, moving from niche to mass manufacturing. The problem of charging is one that will have to be solved before the market is ready for moving from fossil fuel and Tesla not only make the vehicles but also put considerable effort into the charging infrastructure, with most major motorways now having at least one Tesla-only Supercharger location. So why won’t Tesla just step up and make an electric motorcycle for the masses? Apparently Elon Musk is a life-long hater of two wheels after going on record claiming that an incident on a bike occurred in his teens that saw him come a little too close to the edge. Difficult to believe if money is to be made and a market is available, any company would not put a toe in the water, especially one that would bring such a quantum change.

And to finish off what is quickly becoming an electric section, KTM have added, GasGas into the family and apparently in order to develop a new range of electric motorcycles and eBikes. They have taken a 60% stake in the Spanish motorcycle company in a deal that will see the companies collaborate on a range of electric vehicles. It will see GasGas and Torrot electric vehicle products sold alongside KTM and Husqvarna brands in its dealer network. Production of GasGas products and Torrot electric vehicles will be continued in Girona/Spain. This is the second time KTM has announced a similar deal in the last few weeks after confirming it is developing closer ties with major stakeholder, Bajaj Auto to create a new range of electric performance bikes built in India but sold in Europe by 2022.

MV Agusta has revealed it has secured financial security it needs to not just update its premium motorcycles but also begin developing a new range of medium capacity models. The capital has been sourced entirely from the Sardarov family, already a major stakeholder in the company. The plan is to sell 25,000 motorcycles a year by the end of the next five years. Attention will also be focused on what is currently lacking for a major manufacturer, a sales and service network.

The good news parting paragraph this week is the success of Brits in the racing world. After the record breaking series win in WSB from Jonathan Rea, his crown will be contested by the newly crowned BSB champion in the form of Scott Redding, continuing his post GP career on a Ducati, into the world series.