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Future Car Market Overview – SMR August 2019

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Welcome to our re-named overview, previously known as the ‘gold book SMR editorial’.

The content and layout has not changed, but any customer suggestions for improvement would be appreciated: e-mail  andrew.mee@cap-hpi.com

Following our acquisition of Derwent Management Services in 2014, cap hpi Ludlow (Derwent) data has been used to populate our SMR budget forecast product since October 2014, but there have been no technical changes to any of our data files or services. 

As we expected, the new data represented a considerable improvement in terms of vehicle coverage compared to our previous external supplier, with more than 4,200 additional cars and LCVs being valued at implementation. Overall Car coverage is 96%, with many of the vehicles valued in gold book for the first time also included in the SMR data.

The new budgets are based on our market leading Burn Rate data and incorporate the latest probability distributions for all elements, based on real world costs. In our opinion, it reflects a much more realistic representation of the likely future SMR expenditure than we were able to display in the past.

For any further detailed questions, please e-mail smr@cap-hpi.com and we will respond as a matter of urgency.

New Ranges

Vehicles from the following new ranges have been included in SMR product for the first time in this month’s publication of SMR budget forecasts:

Range

BMW M8 CONVERTIBLE 2019

BMW M8 COUPE 2019

BMW X1 DIESEL ESTATE 2019

BMW X1 ESTATE 2019

FORD FIESTA HATCHBACK SPECIAL EDITIONS 2019

KIA PRO CEED SHOOTING BRAKE SPECIAL EDITION 2019

KIA STINGER GRAN TURISMO SPECIAL EDITION 2019

KIA XCEED DIESEL HATCHBACK 2019

KIA XCEED HATCHBACK 2019

KIA XCEED HATCHBACK SPECIAL EDITION 2019

MERCEDES-BENZ GLC AMG COUPE 2019

MERCEDES-BENZ GLC AMG ESTATE 2019

MERCEDES-BENZ GLC DIESEL COUPE 2019

MERCEDES-BENZ GLC DIESEL ESTATE 2019

RENAULT CLIO DIESEL HATCHBACK 2019

RENAULT CLIO HATCHBACK 2019

SKODA SUPERB DIESEL ESTATE 2019

SKODA SUPERB DIESEL HATCHBACK 2019

SKODA SUPERB ESTATE 2019

SKODA SUPERB HATCHBACK 2019

TOYOTA SUPRA COUPE 2019


Budget Changes

The overall average budget change at 36/60 is -£13.46

This month we implemented a large scale wear rate review, using a far larger dataset than before making specific model, drive and power baskets far more representative.

The areas of change are to tyre and brake wear for both replacement mileages and the spread element.

Although the average budget change is a decrease, there are some very large movements including some increases.

The following models see the largest changes (more than +/- 50%):

CAPID

Description

Change

77171

MINI Clubman Estate 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 6dr [Chili Pack] 18.5

63%

83473

MINI Clubman Estate 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 6dr [Chili/Nav+ Pack] 18.5

63%

77168

MINI Clubman Estate 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 6dr Auto 18.5

62%

83474

MINI Clubman Estate 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 6dr Auto [Chi/Nav+ Pk] 18.5

63%

83462

MINI Clubman Estate 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 6dr [Nav+ Pack] 18.5

62%

77172

MINI Clubman Estate 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 6dr Auto [Chili Pack] 18.5

63%

83463

MINI Clubman Estate 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 6dr Auto [Nav+ Pack] 18.5

62%

77167

MINI Clubman Estate 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 6dr 18.5

62%

88560

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 JCW II 2dr Auto [Comfort Pack] [8 Speed] 19.25

67%

83205

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 John Cooper Works II 2dr [Chili/Nav+ Pack] 18.5

70%

83206

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 John Cooper Works II 2dr Auto [8 Speed] 18.5

67%

83202

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 John Cooper Works II 2dr 18.5

67%

83208

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 John Cooper Works II 2dr Auto [Chili Pk] 8Spd 18.5

70%

88559

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 JCW II 2dr [Comfort Pack] 19.25

67%

83204

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 John Cooper Works II 2dr [Chili pack] 18.5

70%

83207

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 John Cooper Works II 2dr Auto [Nav+] 8Spd 18.5

67%

88561

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 JCW II 2dr [Comfort/Nav Pack] 19.25

67%

88562

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 JCW II 2dr Auto [Comfort/Nav Pack] [8 Speed] 19.25

67%

83203

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 John Cooper Works II 2dr [Nav+ Pack] 18.5

67%

88548

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 John Cooper Works II 2dr [Nav Pack] 19.25

67%

88549

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 JCW II 2dr Auto [Nav Pack] [8 Speed] 19.25

67%

83209

MINI Convertible 2.0 231 John Cooper Works II 2dr Auto [Chi/Nav+] 8Spd 18.5

70%

78933

MINI Countryman Hatchback 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 5dr Auto 18.5

63%

83430

MINI Countryman Hatchback 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 5dr [Chili/Nav+ Pack] 18.5

63%

78932

MINI Countryman Hatchback 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 5dr 18.5

63%

78936

MINI Countryman Hatchback 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 5dr [Chili pack] 18.5

63%

83431

MINI Countryman Hatchback 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 5dr Auto [Chili/Nav+] 18.5

63%

83428

MINI Countryman Hatchback 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 5dr [Nav+ Pack] 18.5

63%

78937

MINI Countryman Hatchback 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 5dr Auto [Chili pack] 18.5

63%

83429

MINI Countryman Hatchback 2.0 231 John Cooper Works ALL4 5dr Auto [Nav+ Pack] 18.5

63%

83115

MINI Hatchback 2.0 John 231 Cooper Works II 3dr [Chili/Nav+ Pack] 18.5

69%

83113

MINI Hatchback 2.0 John 231 Cooper Works II 3dr 18.5

67%

83114

MINI Hatchback 2.0 John 231 Cooper Works II 3dr [Chili Pack] 18.5

69%

88477

MINI Hatchback 2.0 John 231 Cooper Works II 3dr [Nav Pack] 19.25

67%

88478

MINI Hatchback 2.0 John 231 Cooper Works II 3dr Auto [Nav] 8 Speed 19.25

67%

88479

MINI Hatchback 2.0 JCW 231 II 3dr [Comfort Pack] 19.25

67%

83117

MINI Hatchback 2.0 John 231 Cooper Works II 3dr Auto [8 Speed] 18.5

67%

88481

MINI Hatchback 2.0 JCW 231 II 3dr [Comfort/Nav Pack] 19.25

67%

83120

MINI Hatchback 2.0 John 231 Cooper Works II 3dr Auto [Nav+] 8Speed 18.5

67%

83118

MINI Hatchback 2.0 John 231 Cooper Works II 3dr Auto [Chili Pk] 8Spd 18.5

69%

83119

MINI Hatchback 2.0 John 231 Cooper Works II 3dr Auto [Chi/Nav+]8Speed 18.5

69%

88480

MINI Hatchback 2.0 JCW 231 II 3dr Auto [Comfort pack] [8 Speed] 19.25

67%

83116

MINI Hatchback 2.0 John 231 Cooper Works II 3dr [Nav+ Pack] 18.5

67%

88482

MINI Hatchback 2.0 JCW 231 II 3dr Auto [Comfort/Nav pack] [8 Speed] 19.25

67%

VAT

VAT is excluded from all calculations.

Service Intervals

All calculations are based upon the service intervals recommended by the manufacturer.

The following factors must be taken into account when setting maintenance budgets

All values are standard average discounted rate by Manufacturer. 
Data includes 2nd & 3rd year warranty only covered exclusively by the Manufacturer. 
No manufacturer goodwill payments are included in the data. 
All costs are original parts price (manufacturers/franchise dealers). 
Vehicle usage is set at medium and assumes on road use only. 
Replacement tyres are assumed to be premium brand. 
Mortality rates are average for standard use. 

Where data is unavailable then certain assumptive aspects of data will be used based on available information for existing models sharing common features. 

In cases where no data is available and there are no common equivalents then either an assumptive figure based on the best available information will be used or alternatively no data will be issued. 

The following elements are excluded from cap hpi gold book SMR

Additional warranty costs
Relief vehicles 
Accident management costs
Road fund license
Insurance costs
Costs of finance
Fuel

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