At the time of writing, there is still no clarity on what is going to happen to the political situation of Brexit. We could be discussing this for years to come and it will definitely affect the industry in some way for some time. In the last round of possibilities a “no deal” was voted down, but is the default position if agreement is not made. Motorcycles are among the goods that will be hit with extra taxes and outside of the EU, the recent trade deal with Japan that will see it reduce duties on Japanese-made bikes to 0% would not apply and current import duties will remain in place. So European bikes increased in new price could possibly make Japanese machines more attractive to buyers. But there is still enormous amounts of uncertainly to the outcome and no indication in our research that pricing is changing as a direct result (yet).
PCP could be hailed as a somewhat saviour of the new industry around the start of the decade when new prices increased and the “price to swap” was on the up. But recently changes announced by HMRC and how VAT applies to PCP’s could throw a spanner in the works for some brands. PCP is currently classed as a supply of goods by HMRC but according to a new briefing document, certain PCP deals could be reclassified to become a supply of services, starting in June. The basics of this, VAT will now only be due when customer payments are made, but where the balloon payment has been set close to or above to the approximate market value, interest on PCPs will no longer be VAT exempt. Also, ex-PCP used bikes that have been reclassified as leases sold by dealers will now attract VAT on their full selling price and appears designed by the Government to discourage the setting of overoptimistic future values for PCPs. In our industry there is mainly independent finance houses supplying this type of funding and it is their interest to ensure residuals are set that do not exceed future value and lose money. There are a couple of players in the market where the setting of higher GFV’s is part of the marketing plan to gain a higher share of the available. BMW particularly do dispose at auction and some of these entries do have VAT applied.
New Market
Total registrations from the MCIA have seen 4,455 new machines in February, up 13% compared to the same month of 2018. The year to date for the first two months has increased from 10,390 by 10.5% to 9,401. As always at this time of year it is worth remembering it is a very short period of time and there is no clear pattern yet for the coming year. Weather last year at this stage was very poor, that always has an adverse impact on the industry, so getting giddy at the moment is a bit premature and of course the political situation is yet to hit. Bucking the trend of several years sees Moped increasing by 10.9%, but it is only by 33 units. There are mixed results over the different styles as far as percentage is concerned, but again as it is still early in the season and the actual unit numbers are small.
February 2019 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style
Mopeds
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Feb-19
Feb-18
Change
Feb-19
Feb-18
2019
2018
% Change
2019
2018
Scooter
282
253
11.5%
83.7%
83.2%
552
600
-8.0%
78.7%
83.3%
Other
55
51
7.8%
16.3%
16.8%
149
120
24.2%
21.3%
16.7%
Totals
337
304
10.9%
100.0%
100.0%
701
720
-2.6%
100.0%
100.0%
Motorcycles
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Feb-19
Feb-18
Change
Feb-19
Feb-18
2019
2018
% Change
2019
2018
Adventure Sport
569
561
1.4%
13.9%
15.5%
1,517
1,362
11.4%
15.7%
15.8%
Custom
251
314
-20.1%
6.1%
8.7%
615
661
-7.0%
6.4%
7.7%
Naked
1,202
960
25.2%
29.4%
26.6%
2,655
2,453
8.2%
27.5%
28.5%
Scooter
1,174
992
18.3%
28.7%
27.5%
2,607
2,032
28.3%
27.0%
23.6%
Sport/Tour
52
59
-11.9%
1.3%
1.6%
160
172
-7.0%
1.7%
2.0%
Supersport
339
258
31.4%
8.3%
7.1%
673
653
3.1%
7.0%
7.6%
Touring
70
76
-7.9%
1.7%
2.1%
170
206
-17.5%
1.8%
2.4%
Trail/Enduro
434
373
16.4%
10.6%
10.3%
1,240
1,056
17.4%
12.9%
12.3%
Unspecified
3
20
-85.0%
0.1%
0.6%
3
23
-87.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Totals
4,094
3,613
13.3%
100.0%
100.0%
9,640
8,618
11.9%
100.0%
100.0%
Tricycles
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Feb-19
Feb-18
Change
Feb-19
Feb-18
2019
2018
% Change
2019
2018
Scooter
13
17
-23.5%
0.3%
0.4%
33
38
-13.2%
0.3%
0.4%
Other
11
9
22.2%
0.2%
0.2%
16
25
-36.0%
0.2%
0.3%
Total Registrations
24
26
-7.7%
0.5%
0.7%
49
63
-22.2%
0.5%
0.7%
Summary
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Feb-19
Feb-18
Change
Feb-19
Feb-18
2019
2018
% Change
2019
2018
Total Moped, Motorcycle & Tricycles (exc Scooters)
2,986
2,681
11.4%
67.0%
68.0%
7,198
6,731
6.9%
69.3%
71.6%
Total Scooters
1,469
1,262
16.4%
33.0%
32.0%
3,192
2,670
19.6%
30.7%
28.4%
Total Registrations
4,455
3,943
13.0%
100.0%
100.0%
10,390
9,401
10.5%
100.0%
100.0%
February 2019 and Year to Date - Highest Registrations by Engine Band
Engine Band
Registrations
%
Market Share (%)
Year to date
YTD
Market Share (%)
Feb-19
Feb-18
Change
Feb-19
Feb-18
2019
2018
% Change
2019
2018
0-50cc
342
311
10.0%
7.7%
7.9%
716
734
-2.5%
6.9%
7.8%
51-125cc
1,796
1,678
7.0%
40.3%
42.6%
3,967
3,560
11.4%
38.2%
37.9%
126-650cc
1,079
806
33.9%
24.2%
20.4%
2,573
2,085
23.4%
24.8%
22.2%
651-1000cc
677
592
14.4%
15.2%
15.0%
1,649
1,509
9.3%
15.9%
16.1%
Over 1000cc
561
556
0.9%
12.6%
14.1%
1,485
1,513
-1.9%
14.3%
16.1%
Total Registrations
4,455
3,943
13.0%
100.0%
100.0%
10,390
9,401
10.5%
100.0%
100.0%
Lower middleweight 126-650cc machines had a good month on an increase of 33.9% with the Y-T-D also 23.4% up for the first two months. There has been a lot of offers in that particular group, so again too early to pass judgement.
February 2019 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style
Mopeds
Highest Registering Model by style
Feb-19
Scooter
Lexmoto ECHO 50
35
Other
Lexmoto ASPIRE 50 TD 50 Q-2
12
Motorcycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Feb-19
Adventure Sport
Honda CRF 1000
51
Custom
Multiple Items
21
Naked
Honda CB 125 F
94
Scooter
Honda PCX 125
175
Sport/Tour
Kawasaki Z1000 SX
21
Supersport
Honda CBR 650 R
56
Touring
BMW R 1250 RT
9
TRAIL/ENDURO
KTM 300 EXC TPI
43
Tricycles
Highest Registering Model by style
Feb-19
SCOOTER
Piaggio MP3 300 YOURBAN LT
7
OTHER
Bajaj RE COMPACT 4S
3
February 2019 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size
Engine Band
Highest Registering Model by Engine Band
Feb-19
0-50cc
Lexmoto ECHO 50
35
51-125cc
Honda PCX 125
175
126-650cc
Honda CBR 650 R
56
651-1000cc
Honda CRF 1000
51
Over 1000cc
BMW R 1250 GS
42
February 2019 - New Registrations by Brand
Major Brands
Feb-19
Honda
1,086
Yamaha
546
KTM
373
Lexmoto
346
Kawasaki
199
Triump
186
BMW
179
Harley-Davidson
175
Royal Enfield
124
Suzuki
119
Used Market
As we move to the end of the first quarter, there is still reports from dealers of pleasing numbers of both showroom traffic and conversions to sales. As ever when the season starts there is a rush for trade buyers to grab stock and consequently moving prices up. This has been reflected in this month’s product as research is leading to that time of year where “into book” is paid, so therefore “book” is increased. There is increased talk of Eurozone buyers activity in dealers, both physically and purchases on line. Again the mention of the B word, is it possible that a good source of cheap bikes are being seen to be coming to an end? Again as mentioned both this month and virtually every month for the past two years, there is no clarity in the possible trading relationship between our domestic market and the markets across the channel.
Auctions
The first Black Horse sale of the year was as expected a large one after several months of missing from the calendar. There was consequently a large number of dealers in attendance and most in the mood to buy. The bottom line was of the 220 entries, 87% or 192 found new homes. The overall average for these was 99% of CAP reported prices. Of course the average does not tell the whole story and overall it is noticeable that models which are in the three year age range and plentiful in number both in the sale and the general market, came in lower than the mean. The lower number models in the market, particularly higher value customs performed very well, but at the start of the season this could be expected. What was noticeable at both this and the MAG sale at Rotherham is Touring Harley models that struggled last year, have been receiving trade attention and realising strong money. As a pattern seen before, at Rotherham, the overall result came back after mileage/condition adjustment, a couple of percent over the BCA results in previous sales. But there is quite a difference between the cost of buying between the two sales and this difference usually is reflected in the results. Dealers are always conscious of these costs above hammer price and is a constant subject when in discussion with buyers. This last research period though, it was the same on 99% of CAP and 72% sold, out of a smaller than expected entry list and quality slightly down on the previous month.
End Notes
Ducati’s annual revenue declined by 5% (to £597m), this is on the back of several years growth though. There was a 10.7% reduction in operating profit (to £21m) and operating margin dropping from 3.8% to 3.6%. Production over the year reduced by 6% (to 53,320 bikes). Retail sales for the year were 5.1% lower (on 53,004), compared to the 500cc plus market reducing by 2.7%. Good news was from superbike and supersports sector, with its new V4 Panigale mirroring the track performance in the retail environment, with volume 29.1% up (to 12,731). The naked part of their range (Monster, Diavel and Streetfighter models) didn’t fare as well with the sector reducing by 22.1% (to 13,375). Dual-sport (Multistrada and Hypermotard) were 6.9% down (to 13,761) and Scramblers a minus 6.5% at 13,137. The brand also anticipates global larger-capacity motorcycle demand to keep on reducing in 2019.
Good news recently for the industry when it was revealed motorcycles and scooter theft had fallen over the past 12 months. The figures point to 27,000 reported bike thefts in 2018, which takes the number close the figure for 2016 and way less than the 2017 jump to 34,000. Perhaps some are coming to the conclusion that the tougher approach from the police, in pursuing and knocking off the criminals riding stolen scooters, appears to be working. In the past five years 79,228 bikes, worth more than £54.5 million, disappeared and were never seen again.
After a worrying increase in the number of acid attacks in 2018, the government proposed restrictions on the sale of acid and acid related products. This led to under the Offensive Weapons Bill, the sale of these items would be handled similarly to that of weapons such as knives or vintage firearms. This resulted in a threat to the online sale of batteries containing acid, due to difficulties in age verification during mail order transactions. Of course a consequence it would have on the motorcycle aftermarket sector and its members’ businesses are obvious, so the Motorcycle Industry Association took action. The MCIA team successfully convinced the Government to change the proposed legislation to exclude vehicle batteries.
Alternative fuelled cars on the rise in quite some number but as yet there is no big move in the two-wheel market, but with big names entering the market such as Harley-Davidson with its LiveWire and a name formally associated with them that keeps popping up over the years and usually in the field left of centre in innovation, Erik Buell. He has again thrown his hat in the ring, this time under the ‘Fuell’ brand name focusing solely on electric bike production. There will be a limited number of models available initially, one a pedal-assisted machine set to be sold as both a licence and insurance-free and as a more powerful version that will need to be registered and ridden under moped rules and another full blown electric motorcycle with two power outputs. One with a power output that falls into the learner-legal 125cc bracket and one with three times the power fitting into the A2 licence category. Usual is not something expected from anything with the Buell name on it and these are no different as apparently they will be powered by a hub-mounted electric motor.
Good news in the racing world to finish off this month, lobbying by the MCIA and other members of the motorcycle and motor sport business community, to exclude motorcycle and motor sport from the EU’s Motor Insurance Directive (MID, sometimes referred to as Vnuk), has achieved success with the European Parliament. The proposed judgement threatened motorcycle and motor sport by making road traffic insurance compulsory during off-road use (e.g. on a motor racing circuit). This would require a form of insurance not commercially available and according to the insurance industry, probably unachievable. There are still lots of things to iron out yet including the agreement of the EU Council, but will the UK even be involved in the decision anyway or even suffer the consequences of it, with Brexit and the upcoming EU elections.
