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green book July 2016

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It feels like the weather has not been mentioned in the editorial for some time. It’s not been very good has it? But we always try to find a reason or excuse for any change in sales activity. Perhaps a new one we can use is the decision we have had to make on staying in the EU, the usual TT week or even the football? This is being written at the time the referendum is going on so the results are obviously not available, but let’s blame the recently reported slowish bike buying activity on the uncertainty surrounding it all. Works for the Stock Market, it can work for us.

New Market
Even when you take in the above, with the word on the streets being of muted and mixed reports, it comes as little surprise that the new registrations have eased back from the two figure percentage growth the industry has enjoyed for a long period now. That said, the total for the month when compared to May last year is still a positive growth of 3.5%, with 12,134 being registered. The total for the year to date with 48,247 in the first five months of the year is 3,625 units more than last year and the bottom line is 7.5% up. The style breakdown is still proving to be a happy hunting ground for naked bikes with another 255 on top of last year’s 3,408, increasing the month’s market share well over the year running total and a third of the market. A new kid on the block in the form of Thruxton R is top dog not only in naked, but over 1000cc and the best seller of the month. Triumph dealers are reporting the more expensive model is out-selling the base model and this is probably a surprise to many. The touring types are still having a difficult time of it and as most who will be going on long runs will have already made a purchase, it is unlikely they will improve. Only other surprises are the best seller in Adventure, although still BMW, is not the GS and Yamaha are closer to Honda than they have been for some time in the Manufacturer bragging rights.
May 2016 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style

Mopeds

Registrations

%

Market Share (%)

Year to date

 

YTD

Market Share (%)

 

May-16

May-15

Change

May-16

May-15

2016

2015

% Change

2016

2015

Scooter

642

716

-10.3%

92.1%

91.6%

3,015

3,215

-6.2%

91.4%

92.0%

Other

55

66

-16.7%

7.9%

8.4%

282

281

0.4%

8.6%

8.0%

Totals

697

782

-10.9%

100.0%

100.0%

3,297

3,496

-5.7%

100.0%

100.0%

Motorcycles

Registrations

%

Market Share (%)

Year to date

 

YTD

Market Share (%)

 

May-16

May-15

Change

May-16

May-15

2016

2015

% Change

2016

2015

Adventure Sport

1,852

1,691

9.5%

16.3%

15.6%

8,531

7,407

15.2%

17.7%

16.7%

Custom

1,069

933

14.6%

9.4%

8.6%

4,379

3,752

16.7%

9.1%

8.5%

Naked

3,663

3,408

7.5%

32.2%

31.4%

13,709

12,851

6.7%

28.5%

29.0%

Scooter

2,238

2,280

-1.8%

19.7%

21.0%

10,080

9,013

11.8%

20.9%

20.3%

Sport/Tour

384

460

-16.5%

3.4%

4.2%

1,746

1,652

5.7%

3.6%

3.7%

Supersport

1,374

1,415

-2.9%

12.1%

13.0%

5,757

5,988

-3.9%

12.0%

13.5%

Touring

230

283

-18.7%

2.0%

2.6%

1,201

1,299

-7.5%

2.5%

2.9%

Trail/Enduro

518

371

39.6%

4.6%

3.4%

2,684

2,315

15.9%

5.6%

5.2%

Unspecified

31

15

106.7%

0.3%

0.1%

86

64

34.4%

0.2%

0.1%

Totals

11,359

10,856

4.6%

100.0%

100.0%

48,173

44,341

8.6%

100.0%

100.0%

Tricycles Registrations % Market Share (%) Year to date YTD Market Share (%)
  May-16 May-15 Change  May-16 May-15 2016 2015 % Change 2016 2015
Scooter 60 60 0.00% 0.50% 0.50% 313 289 8.30% 0.60% 0.60%
Other 18 28 -35.70% 0.10% 0.20% 89 121 -26.40% 0.20% 0.30%
Total Registrations 78 88 -11.40% 0.60% 0.80% 402 410 -2.00% 0.80% 0.80%

Summary

Registrations

%

Market Share (%)

Year to date

 

YTD

Market Share (%)

 

May-16

May-15

Change

May-16

May-15

2016

2015

% Change

2016

2015

Total Moped, Motorcycle & Tricycles (exc Scooters)

9,194

8,670

6.0%

75.8%

73.9%

38,464

35,730

7.7%

74.2%

74.1%

Total Scooters

2,940

3,056

-3.8%

24.2%

26.1%

13,408

12,517

7.1%

25.8%

25.9%

Total Registrations

12,134

11,726

3.5%

100.0%

100.0%

51,872

48,247

7.5%

100.0%

100.0%

May 2016 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Engine Band

Engine Band

Registrations

%

Market Share (%)

Year to date

YTD

Market Share (%)

May-16

May-15

Change

May-16

May-15

2016

2015

% Change

2016

2015

0-50cc

709

786

-9.8%

5.8%

6.7%

3,372

3,569

-5.5%

6.5%

7.4%

51-125cc

4,252

4,297

-1.0%

35.0%

36.6%

18,096

16,501

9.7%

34.9%

34.2%

126-650cc

1,867

1,569

19.0%

15.4%

13.4%

8,007

7,546

6.1%

15.4%

15.6%

651-1000cc

2,891

2,773

4.3%

23.8%

23.6%

12,743

11,415

11.6%

24.6%

23.7%

Over 1000cc

2,415

2,301

5.0%

19.9%

19.6%

9,654

9,216

4.8%

18.6%

19.1%

Total Registrations

12,134

11,726

3.5%

100.0%

100.0%

51,872

48,247

7.5%

100.0%

100.0%

May 2016 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style

As with most things in the country the worry of the political situation could have slowed retail demand for new motorcycles. But during the build-up in June new bike registrations were up by 6.9% (14,137 total) against the same month of last year, which is close to the year-to-date growth of 7.4% (66,009 total). The pattern within the style categories is a bit of a mix up between the month and y-t-d figures. Naked continues its growth with close to a third of the June’s market share and an increase over last year of 14.3% in front of the growth of 8.4% in the first half of the year. Scooter also had a good month with a bit over 20% of the new market and growth a bit over four points up on y-t-d. The two touring sectors are having a poor month, with both behind the six-month numbers and Touring continuing the years negative trend but in an even bigger way.

Mopeds

Highest Registering Model by style

May-16

Scooter

Longjia LJ 50 QT-3L ECHO 50

63

Other

Rieju MRT 50

11

Motorcycles

Highest Registering Model by style

May-16

Adventure Sport

BMW S 1000 XR

135

Custom

Harley-Davidson SPORTSTER N 883

99

Naked

Triumph THRUXTON 1200 R

185

Scooter

Honda PCX 125

143

Sport/Tour

Kawasaki Z1000 SX

92

Supersport

Yamaha YZF R125 ABS

123

Touring

BMW R 1200 RT

56

TRAIL/ENDURO

Honda CRF 250 L

45


Tricycles

Highest Registering Model by style

May-16

SCOOTER

Piaggio MP3 500 LT SPORT ABS

19

OTHER

Can-Am SPYDER F3 1330 ACE

7

May 2016 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size

Engine Band

Highest Registering Model by Engine Band

May-16

0-50cc

Longjia LJ 50 QT-3L ECHO 50

63

51-125cc

Honda CB 125 F

176

126-650cc

Honda CBR 650 F

102

651-1000cc

Yamaha MT-07 ABS

150

Over 1000cc

Triumph THRUXTON 1200 R

185

May 2016 - New Registrations by Brand

Major Manufacturers by Brand

May-16

Honda

1,895

Yamaha

1,741

Triumph

1,100

Lexmoto

1,025

BMW

856

Kawasaki

692

Harley-Davidson

536

Suzuki

523

Piaggio

477

Ducati

433

Used Market

Many of the factors that impact on the new market are also present in the used market, this last research period has been no different. It is sometimes amazing how dealers from different parts of the country and selling different price or types of bikes, all go quiet/busy at the same time, but they do in general. This last month is best described as patchy. We are again coming towards the time of year when the closed season starts to be mentioned. Now bear in mind that the retail and trade buying season follows  a similar pattern, but trade buyers start earlier to have stock available for the punters and stop buying as much while there is some, but less, retail chance of disposal. We are not quite in the position where feedback is pointing to reducing values, but the mention by some within the industry is suggesting it can be closer than we would like it to be. What can be said is that stock is more available and is being chosen carefully buy the astute who have one eye on cash-flow. In conclusion this month’s research is not pointing to any major drops in prices and the changes have just been kept to the odd model where necessary.

Auction

Around the halls this month there has been one of the bi-monthly Black Horse disposals at BCA and although virtually all those entries sold, the quality of them was below what would normally be seen and prices reduced as the difference between clean, ready for retail and requiring reconditioning becomes more apparent. Overall the sale returned 94% of cap adjusted figures and the hammer fell on 75% of the entries. West Coast, despite the M6 affecting attendees, the good quality entries saw 40 sold, again three-quarters found new homes and overall returned just over cap reported figures. Bawtry with a few less entries than normal (82) finished with what appears to be the standard around the auctions this month with three-quarters selling. Again close to “book”. What has been obvious in all three is that the quality is lower and mileages higher, but when still in the retail season, this is to be expected. Clean, ready for retail, low mileage examples are proving popular in attracting bids with the consequence of strong prices.

End Notes

We have received questions from many places on the continuing saga of MV Agusta. All of course revolve around the effect on used and residual prices, dealers wanting to know if the current reported price for the range will be dropping in the near future and finance house enquiries in a similar vein when looking in the longer term around the setting of futures in our prediction products. Well the latest rumour from Italy is ownership could be moving to another American company after the brief involvement Harley-Davidson had with the brand. After large expansion over the past few years, there can be some sense seen in the latest whisperings that Polaris might be adding to their motorcycle portfolio. MV boss Giovanni Castiglioni is trying to regain control of the 20% owned by Mercedes-AMG but with a report of a €40 million of debt, some secured by the car giant, deep pockets will be required. MV’s sales have been reported as up by 30% in 2015. The saga will continue for some time.

Mahindra has been mentioned in the Indian press, with the rumour mill hinting a couple of famous old British bike brands could be a target. The company is a big player in the car and tractor market on the sub-continent, including Ssanyong, but has struggled to replicate a similar success in the last six years they have been in the two-wheel market, initially with Kinetic followed with a controlling 51% stake in Peugeot Motorcycles and now reports have mentioned Norton and BSA. The former currently has a revived presence around the motorcycling world, but the latter only in the world of classics. Buying a named British brand worked for competitor, Royal Enfield in the Indian market as well as winning instant recognition on the world stage. Norton are as we know currently making high spec, expensive, but limited numbers which as a brand would benefit from a cash injection to move onto a larger scale range and production numbers. But the BSA brand would be a whole newly developed range that could consist one would suspect, of retro themed models.

There are claims being made that meetings with people from all the names involved have already been held and could lead to a possible announcement within six months. Reports on a motorcycle website have stated that Norton CEO Stuart Garner has not owned up to the talks, but says the manufacturer is not for sale, with the hand built British motorcycles continuing from the Donington Hall base.

And on the subject of motorcycles moving between the two countries the home-grown Triumph brand has reached annual Indian sales of more than 3000 units and are anticipating growth of 20-25% by 2017.

Triumph are currently in second place behind Harley-Davidson, who sold around 5000 units, in the very small market for large-capacity machines of 10,234 (which grew just under 3%) in a massive PTW marketplace of 18.9 million.

At the recent Thruxton R launch in the country the desire to be a niche player only was underlined with the announcement that plans to launch smaller bikes had definitely been abandoned.

The woes in the world of Suzuki continue with the chief executive, Osamu Suzuki, who has held the position over 40 years, stepping down after another fuel economy scandal hit the car world. Others heads have rolled and all the remaining Suzuki senior managers are not receiving their summer bonuses and had pay cuts of up to 40% for six months imposed upon them. Although no motorcycles have been involved, in the larger scheme of things the two wheel division must be affected in some way, as the lack of investment in new models suffered over several years, is unlikely to change if the group is under financial pressure from the fallout.

After a long period of growth in the North American market (amongst many) culminating in a 2015 year total 9.3% growth, BMW Motorrad’s had a poor May, declining 40% on the same month last year and the year-to-date numbers delivered of 5,641 units a negative 17.3%. Growth on the scale seen by the manufacturer has been on the back of moving away from the type of bikes they were known for in the past and development of varied new models, some competing with manufacturers established in the styles. New offerings in the market tend to sell well initially with the market always on the lookout for a change, but over time every brand and type of bike finds its own sustainable level. Are the continued growth expectations as has been seen before with many marques, viable and will over supply impact on previously seen robust residuals.

A lot of people in the industry are enthusiasts and racing is part of the love of all things two wheels many have, so it is always a sad day when a sport loses one of its modern day warriors. The annual TT has again struck with its darker side, compounded by a rare loss in the GP world, the past month has not been a good one. Commiserations go to all family and friends.
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