green book editorial July 2018

The last time fuel went up significantly, there was a significant hike in sale of smaller commuter type two wheelers. Petrol prices rose by 6p a litre in May which is the biggest monthly increase since the RAC began tracking prices 18 years ago. We can but hope?

New Market

0.7% more two wheeled machines were registered in May this year than the same month of 2017, according to the latest available MCIA numbers. The year-to-date is a smaller 0.4% increase, but still a positive even if it is a small 158 increase. You will have to go back to 2014 to see a lower number for the start of the year. The reason, (or excuses) for the numbers have been much discussed throughout the industry and do not need re-visiting here again. But take a minute to compare against other types of transport and things might not appear as bad as the initial glance. Car registrations are up 3.4% for the month, but Y-T-D are in a negative 6.8% position, business purchases particularly bad with the month -9.6% and the year so far -16.2%. A similar story in the LCV market, with May up 2.4% but the Y-T-D -1.4% and total HGV for the first quarter -6%.

May 2018 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style

Mopeds	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	May-18	May-17	Change	May-18	May-17	2018	2017	% Change	2018	2017
Scooter	378	456	-17.1%	83.1%	86.4%	1,610	2,240	-28.1%	83.5%	89.5%
Other	77	72	6.9%	16.9%	13.6%	317	264	20.1%	16.5%	10.5%
Totals	455	528	-13.8%	100.0%	100.0%	1,927	2,504	-23.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Looking at the style categories performance the only consistency is the continued decline in the supersport class, both in the month and the year so far. The market share for all styles for May and the first five months of the year looked like they have settled into a pattern, with little difference either or when comparing to last year.

May 2018 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Engine Band

Engine Band	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	May-18	May-17	Change	May-18	May-17	2018	2017	% Change	2018	2017
0-50cc	476	536	-11.2%	4.4%	4.9%	2,018	2,545	-20.7%	4.5%	5.7%
51-125cc	3,058	2,951	3.6%	28.0%	27.2%	12,690	12,272	3.4%	28.4%	27.6%
126-650cc	1,865	1,743	7.0%	17.1%	16.1%	9,056	7,160	26.5%	20.3%	16.1%
651-1000cc	3,115	3,226	-3.4%	28.5%	29.7%	10,744	12,780	-15.9%	24.0%	28.7%
Over 1000cc	2,418	2,403	0.6%	22.1%	22.1%	10,187	9,780	4.2%	22.8%	22.0%
Total Registrations	10,932	10,859	0.7%	100.0%	100.0%	44,695	44,537	0.4%	100.0%	100.0%

One cause for concern though is the 651-1000cc range that perhaps would be the go to engine size for many users, but mainly leisure riders. After being the largest group last year, this year sees just over 2,000 less with a decline of 15.9%. It is very noticeable that a significant amount of the schemes or incentives currently being offered are in this engine band.

May 2018 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style

Mopeds	Highest Registering Model by style	May-18
Scooter	Lexmoto ECHO 50	32
Other	Lexmoto HUNTER 50 TD 50 Q	11

Motorcycles	Highest Registering Model by style	May-18
Adventure Sport	Yamaha TRACER 900	182
Custom	Harley-Davidson SPORTSTER X 1200	89
Naked	Honda CB 125 R	153
Scooter	Yamaha NMAX 125	198
Sport/Tour	Kawasaki Z1000 SX	120
Supersport	BMW S 1000 RR	90
Touring	BMW R 1200 RT	62
TRAIL/ENDURO	KTM 250 EXC-F	39

Tricycles	Highest Registering Model by style	May-18
SCOOTER	Piaggio MP3 300 YOURBAN LT	14
OTHER	Harley-Davidson TRI GLIDE ULTRA 1745	8

May 2018 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size

Engine Band	Highest Registering Model by Engine Band	May-18
0-50cc	Lexmoto ECHO 50	32
51-125cc	Yamaha NMAX 125	198
126-650cc	Honda CMX 500 REBEL	88
651-1000cc	Yamaha TRACER 900	182
Over 1000cc	BMW R 1200 GS ADVENTURE	165

May 2018 - New Registrations by Brand

Major Brands	May-18
Honda	1,800
Yamaha	1,553
Triumph	1,014
BMW	924
Kawasaki	698
Harley-Davidson	667
Suzuki	587
KTM	550
Lexmoto	409
Ducati	346

Used Market

Even though the new market is in a level plateau as far as comparisons to recent years are concerned, there is still a feeling amongst the used sections of dealerships that stock is being moved. The definitive statement of used numbers for the whole industry is always going to be difficult, if not impossible and relies on individual dealer feedback. But in the main, feedback is mixed but leaning towards the positive and stock is at manageable levels generally. A point always mentioned around this time is the slowing due to TT week. But remember the summer holiday final invoices are coming in, so is this a coincidence? This time of the sales cycle sees a levelling of used prices every year, there is no difference seen this year and consequently there has been no general movements in pricing, except where research has pointed that tweaks are in order. 

Auction

The first year where Black Horse has a disposal every month through the lighter months has seen a steady flow through the Peterborough BCA site. Again the close to 90 lots from the Finance house sold quickly as a result of the usual intense dealer attention and as always realised good prices when compared to dealer entries. There are some numbers of certain models appearing that are in the age range that could possibly suggest PCP end of contact returns. It is perhaps not strange that the ones sold in significant numbers at the time, appear back into the trade in equally significant numbers.  One particular model in question - Street Triple RX – saw them being half the marques entries in the sale and prices behind CAP reported, by anything between £200 to as much as £450. Although there has been some re-adjustment to the price of this particular model in line with this sale and other research, the amount in one sale that also effects prices has been taken into account. Such a situation in auction has been seen before and movement decisions are always backed up with dealer research. MAG at Rotherham was a little lower on attendees than normal, but as with the rest of the industry around this time of year comments are abound that the TT week has slowed everything. That said the results are in line with the sales over the last few months, with 75% of the 128 entries selling. The quality in general was up on the past two sales. Prices were close to expected with little sign of movement either way from the past two months. The final average numbers for the whole sale came in at 97% of CAP, or an average of £100 deviation.

End Notes

When looking at the decline in Moped registrations over the past couple of years, although it could be argued that the numbers were on the wane before the headline grabbing crimes committed using them, the constant mention in the press has got to be have a negative effect. This is emphasised even more so when the victims are celebrities. The recent conviction for murder by someone using a moped, who stabbed a young father to death while trying to steal his wristwatch has gone some way to sooth the shouting crowd that is the majority of the population for something to be done, it is still being described as “moped crime” and the perpetrators as “riders”. This is a taint on our industry.

After a split with Italian manufacturer Piaggio, you would suspect that in a market of 20 million bikes per annum Indian retro brand LML would not be in the position where debts including unsecured supply-chain creditors and outstanding wages amounted to £55.7m, but they have and there appears to be little interest at the moment in anyone purchasing the remnants of the business.

Scanning the financial pages over the past few months and the world news over a longer period, it should come as little surprise that the tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to America have again hit the headlines after President Trump’s threats of tariffs came into force on the 1^st June. The world has reacted, including the EU, with retaliatory measures that have been stated in the press to include iconic US brands especially mentioning Harley-Davidson. The EU is its largest export market. Although the immediate months are not expected to see changes in current stock being held, within this year it will have impact not only on imports, but the European manufacturers who are feeling the pinch in an already shrinking market. If this situation continues there is a chance nearly–new used could rise, as 20%+ of already expensive machines is a significant increase. The situation will be closely followed and reflected in this publication when necessary.

The Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) has again raised a subject first seen four years ago. From their web site - They are calling on EU member governments and MEPs to reject European Commission proposals which threaten to end all forms of competitive and grassroots motorsport across the EU, including the UK. The association says the UK government must act "to avoid the catastrophic damage that will be inflicted on motorsport across the board if this ruling turns into law – even if this means defying Brussels". The proposals arise from a newly tabled EU directive which amends aspects of the Motor Insurance Directive (MID). It also responds to the 2014 so-called Vnuk judgment of the European Court of Justice which ruled that all mechanically propelled vehicles must have full third-party motor insurance to cover injury, damage and loss, whether used on public roads or private land. The insurance industry has already made it clear that it would be difficult to provide such insurance, given the risks, particularly damage to machines, caused by vehicle collisions, common in competition events. In countries where full third-party liability insurance has already been applied to motorised sporting events, premiums have risen to exorbitant levels. As a result, such insurance would make almost all such events unviable. Motorcycle sport generates much needed income in rural areas, with over 1.7 million spectators watching around 55,000 riders attend an average of over 4000 off-road and track events each year. The European Commission’s proposals represent a complete U-turn from its position of two years ago, when in the wake of the Vnuk judgment, it proposed to exclude vehicles not being used ‘in traffic’ from the MID. This would have made all forms of motorsport exempt from the impact of the Vnuk ruling. The EC has ignored 3,500 consultation responses supporting an exemption for motorsports. The UK Government has actively supported efforts to remove the threat of Vnuk and its unintended consequences. Motorcycle sport is estimated to be worth £1 billion which rises to around £11billion across all forms of UK motor sports.