Motorcycle Overview October 2019

With the upcoming show season, talk in the media of the new models we can expect going into 2020 and many late season offers, there is some respite of the inevitable conversations around the “B” word and politics in general. But it is still there and taking major blame for the slowing of showroom traffic that according to dealer sentiment, is lower than would “normally” be expected.

New Market

The MCIA registration statistics for the latest available month, August, have not made for encouraging reading. The overall numbers saw a 7.4% reduction to 6,924 units, which is 557 less than the same period of 2018. Still on a positive, as far as the Year-to-Date is concerned now the first eight months of the year is done, the total is up 1,534 (2.1%) on last year’s 74,771. Positives are hard to find in any of the different categories, but Mopeds are continuing in a small positive way, the relatively small amount of Trail/Enduro numbers have a large looking 22% increase and the Adventure sector has enjoyed a very small positive. Naked, the biggest share of the market for some time, dropped sharply by 14.8%, but still reigns supreme for both the month and Y-T-D just over a third of the total registrations.

August 2019 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style

Mopeds	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Aug-19	Aug-18	Change	Aug-19	Aug-18	2019	2018	% Change	2019	2018
Scooter	411	438	-6.2%	77.3%	86.6%	3,208	2,859	12.2%	79.8%	83.5%
Other	121	68	77.9%	22.7%	13.4%	810	567	42.9%	20.2%	16.5%
Totals	532	506	5.1%	100.0%	100.0%	4,018	3,426	17.3%	100.0%	100.0%

Apart from the afore mentioned sub 50cc Moped sector, all the other engine bands lost out compared to last year. The worst being in the more profitable larger-capacity band. 651-1000cc band a 19% loss (to 1,253) and the over 1000cc band falling by 14.4% (to 985). All the larger (over 125cc) capacity bands have seen the pre new plate market share lower for the month than seen in the Y-T-D, but a positive over performance for the sub 125cc. Perhaps as the end of the school year sees leavers starting a new job, there is a jump in youngsters commuting?

August 2019 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Engine Band

Engine Band	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Aug-19	Aug-18	Change	Aug-19	Aug-18	2019	2018	% Change	2019	2018
0-50cc	585	525	11.4%	8.4%	7.0%	4,306	3,599	19.6%	5.6%	4.8%
51-125cc	2,774	2,905	-4.5%	40.1%	38.8%	23,226	22,794	1.9%	30.4%	30.5%
126-650cc	1,327	1,354	-2.0%	19.2%	18.1%	16,074	14,255	12.8%	21.1%	19.1%
651-1000cc	1,253	1,546	-19.0%	18.1%	20.7%	17,328	18,224	-4.9%	22.7%	24.4%
Over 1000cc	985	1,151	-14.4%	14.2%	15.4%	15,371	15,899	-3.3%	20.1%	21.3%
Total Registrations	6,924	7,481	-7.4%	100.0%	100.0%	76,305	74,771	2.1%	100.0%	100.0%

August 2019 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style

Mopeds	Highest Registering Model by style	Aug-19
Scooter	Lexmoto ECHO 50	70
Other	Lexmoto ASPIRE 50 TD 50 Q-2	40

Motorcycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Aug-19
Adventure Sport	Yamaha TENERE 700	80
Custom	Keeway SUPERLIGHT	49
Naked	Honda CB 125 F	136
Scooter	Honda PCX 125	205
Sport/Tour	Kawasaki Z1000 SX	56
Supersport	Lexmoto LXR 125 SY 125-10	73
Touring	BMW R 1250 RT	20
TRAIL/ENDURO	Honda CRF 250 LA	32

Tricycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Aug-19
SCOOTER	Piaggio MP3 300 HPE	16
OTHER	Bajaj RE COMPACT 4S	10

August 2019 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size

Engine Band	Highest Registering Model by Engine Band	Aug-19
0-50cc	Lexmoto ECHO 50	70
51-125cc	Honda PCX 125	205
126-650cc	Royal Enfield INTERCEPTOR INT 650	100
651-1000cc	Multiple Items	80
Over 1000cc	Kawasaki Z1000 SX	56

Used Market

As mentioned above, the sentiment around trade buyers spoken to this last research period is that retail activity has slowed. Weather, politics, global economy and the general lowering of confidence, if they are the real reasons, have led to this year’s pre winter downturn starting earlier than last year. This month as with last month’s product, dealer feedback in association with other forms of research have led to a reduction in reported prices, virtually across the board. There are certain models that have sold significant amounts in the past that are now returning to used market at the end of PCP contracts and are causing an imbalance in the supply/demand chain. Although as time moves on those affected will start to be traded at different times, stabilising prices and supply more in line with market requirements, they are currently under pressure and this has also been over a large portion of this year. As we move into the last quarter of the year, the pattern from recent years is that where cash-flow allows some are starting to stock up for next season before the last minute rush as the next retail season starts to stir from hibernation. Close watch will be kept on trade buyers to try identifying if this is going to continue this year.

Auctions

The results around the auction halls closely reflects the dealer feedback as it generally does. Both dedicated auction sites have reflected the opinions often heard at this time of year, “a couple behind book” is the safety net a dealer will use in the hope that if stock does not find a retail customer, disposal in the trade is still a possibility. The only fly in the ointment is the rest of the trade is of the similar opinion, but if still held in stock over the quiet times it will allow for a price to sell or increased mark-up going into the following year. The sales in general have returned similar results in the low 90%’s for the whole sale compared to CAP values, these show a similar £ value to the dealer safety net and the sold penetration for most sales has been very close to half of the entries sold. The only deviation from the amount of entries sold were as usual in the Black Horse sale at BCA. As always the vast majority – If not all – are disposed of at the first time of offering. On comparing the results from this year to the same sales 12 months ago show that the number of entries are down and the sold penetration is also down, another suggestion that the season has slowed earlier.

End Notes

There is talk of a possible global slowdown on its way and no doubt if it does happen, there will be consequences in the motorcycle industry. As yet there has been little evidence in Europe, North America has had some problems for a while, but according to latest data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), total PTW sales across the sub-continent crashed by a significant 22.2% during August (to 1.514 million units). At the same time car sales for the month sank by 41% (to 115,000) and light commercial vehicles were also fell, by 39%. Other factors outside the potential of global problems are in play though, a liquidity squeeze on non-bank financial services firms, which are responsible for about half of all Indian consumer credit provision funding vehicle purchases, has been blamed for this crisis, as is excessive point-of-sale taxation.

KTM has had its ninth-consecutive record results including the first half of 2019 where revenue increased by 4.2% (to £686.4m), operating profit increased 1.4% (to £42.4m) on the back of global unit sales up 7% (to 135,711), of which 115,318 branded KTM. European registrations grew by 6.6% to keep a market share of 11.4% and even went against the flow in the slowing US market suffering which declined by 2.3% in the first half with the manufacturer having a 5.2% increase and even in India increasing by more than 35%.

A subject mentioned here before and widely covered in the press and social media is moped crime, particularly in London. Calls have been made for harder methods to stop this and to stick up more for the police. All helped in allowing the police to begin using their cars to stop suspected criminals in November 2018 and since then the problem has dropped from 20,973, between June 2017 and July 2018, to just 9,723 in the year until June 2019 (a 53.7% reduction). Thefts of mopeds, scooters and motorcycles between July 2017 and June 2018 were 11,395, which has since fallen by 22.4%, to 8,847 between July 2018 and June 2019. Not only is this good news for the industry, the public and insurance companies, but makes for great entertainment for the baying mobs when viewing the videos on social media.

To finish on what could be a positive note this month, there are rumours circulating that Ewan McGregor and Charley Boorman are looking at their third adventure bike trip. This time riding Harley-Davidson LiveWires up the West coast of South America into Los Angeles and even possibly continuing up to Alaska. The original trip - an unbelievable 15 years ago - was the start of the Adventure bike revolution. With a recent a global sales report stating Harley dealers are saying that retail sales are 5 -10% lower than the same time last year this could not only help the manufacturer find sales, but get the first large electric bike from a major manufacturer in front of a large audience being used in the real world and possibility leading to another revolution away from fossil fuelled motorcycles.