Motorcycle Overview December 2018

As the end of the year is upon us the thoughts of the new kit on offer for the next comes to the fore. The press is full of reviews and the show season was in full swing in the last few weeks. The two-yearly Intermot show in Cologne started this year’s circus, followed by the annual EICMA at Milan. It can be argued that the shows can give us some indication of industry performance in the following year and if that is so the EICMA 20% increase in floor space, media and “foreign professionals” increased their presence by 18.3% and 17.1% respectively and public attendance up 24% on last year’s record, is encouraging. On the subject of the European industry, the registrations figures for the first three-quarters of the year, up to the end of September have recently become available. The overall Powered-Two-wheel market of 1,040,256 was down 1.1% on the same period of 2017. The larger countries in terms of registrations have had a mixed time, Italy up 2.7% 202,605, France -4.3% 197,774, Germany 5.9% up on 160,761, Spain 123,360 increasing 2.5%, our domestic market 87,263 2.6% more and the worst performer The Netherlands with 59,455 a 15.5% decline. Interestingly the same countries when excluding Mopeds all had a positive result. In the same country order as above 5.1%, 10%, 11.1%, 8%, 3.7% and 4.3% positive. Which leaves us with a list of the poor results all the top six had in Mopeds sector, again in the same country order, -18.7%, -30.1%, -20.2%, the worst Spain -35.8%, UK not as dire as some on -22.2% and -19.5%. One point worth making at this moment is Portugal, a country that is having a presence at UK auctions and within dealers. Although a smaller market at 25,175 total PTW, the increase is the second biggest (after Belgium) on the continent. The country suffered more than most after the 2008 crash, but looks like the recovery is well underway and the reason for them adding to the list of Euro Zone countries wanting a piece of our used stock. Today’s new bike is tomorrows used bike and if they struggled to sell new a few years ago, its reasonably obvious that favourable exchange rate would attract them to our shores.

New Market

Start on the positive of the latest MCIA new registration numbers and the total market for Y-T-D is 1.7% up with two months to go before the final numbers for the year. October though, being the latest available, are not as positive. In fact decidedly negative of 2%, moving from 7,259 in 2017 to 7,406 this year. There are mixed monthly results in the different categories that are totally different to the larger picture from the first ten months. The larger selling groups Adventure Sport, Naked and Scooter all had a better on the Y-T-D, with Adventure a healthy 9.5% up, balking the Y-T-D negative 2.1% trend. As there are a lot of schemes around at the moment, (but that’s not really anything new) as always it can have an affect the numbers in some way. As mentioned above Adventure has had a good month, but cross reference that with the best sellers list and the Africa Twin selling 279 after 232 the previous month would suggest there was more than a little influence in some form with the result. Naked continues to rule the roost with close to a third of the month and just over a third of the year numbers falling in the category.

October 2018 and Year to Date - New Registrations by Style

Mopeds	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Oct-18	Oct-17	Change	Oct-18	Oct-17	2018	2017	% Change	2018	2017
Scooter	361	569	-36.6%	76.8%	88.1%	3,758	5,149	-27.0%	81.5%	87.2%
Other	109	77	41.6%	23.2%	11.9%	851	753	13.0%	18.5%	12.8%
Totals	470	646	-27.2%	100.0%	100.0%	4,609	5,902	-21.9%	100.0%	100.0%

October 2018 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Engine Band

Engine Band	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Oct-18	Oct-17	Change	Oct-18	Oct-17	2018	2017	% Change	2018	2017
0-50cc	487	656	-25.8%	6.7%	8.9%	4,806	6,023	-20.2%	5.1%	6.5%
51-125cc	2,632	2,764	-4.8%	36.3%	37.3%	29,660	27,568	7.6%	31.4%	29.7%
126-650cc	1,391	1,399	-0.6%	19.2%	18.9%	17,755	15,089	17.7%	18.8%	16.2%
651-1000cc	1,599	1,376	16.2%	22.0%	18.6%	23,004	24,761	-7.1%	24.3%	26.6%
Over 1000cc	1,150	1,211	-5.0%	15.8%	16.4%	19,298	19,471	-0.9%	20.4%	21.0%
Total Registrations	7,259	7,406	-2.0%	100.0%	100.0%	94,523	92,912	1.7%	100.0%	100.0%

The sub 125cc even though it remains the largest single part of the market has had a bit of a blip in October, but nothing major, although the 651-1000cc band could be considered so. Again there is a hint that scheme, offers and pre registrations have played a part in the outcome. And on that subject with discounting thrown in, we see KTM enter the top three manufacturers.

October 2018 and Year to Date - Highest Registering Model by Style

Mopeds	Highest Registering Model by style	Oct-18
Scooter	Lexmoto ECHO 50	76
Other	Lexmoto HUNTER 50 TD 50 Q	15

Motorcycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Oct-18
Adventure Sport	Honda CRF 1000	279
Custom	Multiple Items	43
Naked	KTM 125 DUKE	96
Scooter	Honda PCX 125	210
Sport/Tour	Kawasaki Z1000 SX	53
Supersport	Yamaha YZF R125 ABS	67
Touring	BMW R 1200 RT	27
TRAIL/ENDURO	KTM 300 EXC SIX DAYS	45

Tricycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Oct-18
SCOOTER	Multiple Items	7
OTHER	Can-Am SPYDER F3 1330 ACE	5

October 2018 - Highest Registering Model by Engine Size

Engine Band	Highest Registering Model by Engine Band	Oct-18
0-50cc	Lexmoto ECHO 50	76
51-125cc	Honda PCX 125	210
126-650cc	KTM 390 DUKE	89
651-1000cc	Honda CRF 1000	279
Over 1000cc	BMW R 1250 GS	129

October 2018 - New Registrations by Brand

Major Brands	Oct-18
Honda	1,554
Yamaha	884
KTM	591
BMW	535
Lexmoto	452
Triumph	374
Kawasaki	324
Harley-Davidson	297
Piaggio	237
Suzuki	210

Used Market

Steady away best describes the last couple of months with retail business still there to be had, but of course in much reduced numbers. It will also come as little surprise to hear that the selection of stock is being made on firstly a search for a bargain, always behind “book” and leaning more towards clean low mile examples. Towards the end of November there are the ones where cash-flow allows, still actively seeking stock and preparing for next year. This starts to gather speed into December and through into the New Year, but at the time of putting together this month’s prices there is no researched opinion or evidence that there is a reason to make a general change, although as usual there are movements where research deems it necessary. Expectations are that as the month comes to a close and Christmas is out of the way, the usual activity for next season’s stock will begin and consequently prices move up.

Auction

At the BCA sale there was again a sizable Black Horse entry among the 155 lots on offer. Out of the 155 entries on offer, 102 sold and the average return for the sale was 93%, which taking into account as dealers do the large buyers fee’s and time of year is in line with expectations. Again within the finance house entries there is what appears to be a number of three year old entries that are thought to be PCP returns. As a spike in registrations on this type of contract will inevitably lead to the contract termination around a similar time, this spike causes an oversupply and consequently reductions in price. This is more evident in the closed environment of an auction where there are limited buyers. At the latest MAG Rotherham sale, there was a lower entry than has been seen over the past few months and of the 80 lots 48 (60%) sold. The condition/mileage adjusted result was 98% of CAP

End Notes

After much talk and comment on a subject tainting the industry, there appears to be some headway being made into scooter crime in London, which has more than halved since a government-led taskforce was created to tackle the issue. According to Home Office reports there was a 32.6% fall in moped crimes between January and August this year compared with the same period in 2017 and compared with July when the crime was at its peak, the number of offences committed in August this year was 56% lower. Among many changes in policing and sentencing is the creation by the Motor Cycle Industry Association of an industry standard for built-in theft deterrents, along with support from its manufacturer members and is playing an active role in the efforts.

There has been a cut to the government’s plug-in grant scheme for low emission vehicles (cars), but as yet electric motorcycles are not affected. The Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV) has reduced grants for two categories of car – those with CO₂ emissions of less than 50g/km and a zero emission range between 10 and 69 miles and those with emissions of 50 to 75g/km and a zero emission range of at least 20 miles. The maximum grant for vehicles [car] with emissions of less than 50g/km and a zero emission range of at least 70 miles has been cut from £4500 to £3500. According to the OLEV website the change in rates applies only to the plug-in car grant and eligible motorcycles - those that have no CO2 emissions and can travel at least 50km (31 miles) between charges will still receive a grant of 20% of the purchase price for these vehicles, up to a maximum of £1500. After a talk with a major electric motorcycle importer at the NEC, this is seen as an excellent opportunity to further the cause of inner city mobility, especially as the larger cities are putting in place, or considering environmental impacts with a view to implementing measures. Apparently new dealers are showing interest around Scotland, particularly Glasgow as low emission zones are being planned.

A strange situation for a modern northern/Central European country has recently had some airtime in the press, as Denmark could soon see a helmet law overhaul. This is following concerns that biker gangs are exploiting the current law. Currently riders are allowed to go helmetless if they obtain a doctor’s note or have a legitimate non-medical reason such as wearing a turban. However, government ministers believe that “biker gang types” often threaten doctors in order to obtain the note. A statement from the Transport Minister who thinks that many are riding without a helmet and he neither see nor believe that they have

deformed heads or claustrophobia that would keep them from putting helmets on their heads. They also think there is a much higher risk of being killed or seriously injured in a traffic accident when you travel by moped or motorcycle when compared to other forms of transport and think therefore it is essential to the safety of moped and motorcycle riders that they wear a helmet with no exceptions.