Used car values remain strong.

Retail and trade demand healthy.

Volumes starting to increase.

Easter period a watershed again?

The month of March has, to date, proved to be a strong one for the used car market, as cap hpi predicted.

Consumers are still actively buying and as a result used car outlets have continued to frequent the auction halls. Conversion rates and sales prices have both held up well.

The early part of March saw some volume models in demand and as a result prices were pushed up. This can be seen with certain examples of the Mondeo, Passat, Golf and Yaris, amongst others.

Convertibles have started their usual seasonal climb in value – with winter now over consumers are looking to the summer months when a soft or hard top is a popular choice. Switched-on dealers will already have purchased when prices were at a low in December or January.

Whilst prices overall have held up well, it is noticeable that this strength is more prevalent on cars around the 3-year old mark. Certainly those at 1-year old or younger have not shown the same strength, due in large part to the presence of attractive new car offerings and the volume of pre-registered cars.

It will be interesting to see how long the used car market retains this strength. Year-to-date the market has been slightly healthier than it was in 2015 and that despite volumes being higher than a year ago. Easter tends to be a watershed, with the holiday period reducing demand, just as supply increases due to part-exchanges and fleet returns generated by the March plate change.

Whilst it is likely that prices will start to fall after Easter, the question this year is: will the falls be heavier than in previous years, because they are starting from a higher point so have further to drop, or will the retail market maintain its strength and temper some of the negative movements? Black book live will track this on a daily basis throughout the period in question but it is likely that value movements will, at the very least, be in-line with the same period last year.